Sri Lanka Turns (a good) Corner Toward the Future

It is no exaggeration to say that 2015 will be remembered as a main turning point for Sri Lanka as a country. The Sri Lankan people made a decisive choice towards democracy and good governance, towards communal reconciliation and for moving the country back again towards its traditional international policy orbit. It was a reassertion from the values that could make Sri Lanka the actual success story of South Asia.

Sri Lanka started 2015 with a damaged and authoritarian regime, led by Mahinda Rajapaksa, which seemed likely to be in power for another decade. In 2009, Rajapaksa had successfully brought to a finish Sri Lanka’s decades-long civil war with the ruthless destruction of the Tamil insurgency. Rajapaksa’utes military victory, and normal scare campaigns about renewed Tamil militancy, gave him what seemed to be an almost permanent stranglehold over the Sri Lankan polity.

Since 2009, the Rajapaksa family had prolonged their hold over key political and civil establishments, undermining the whole fabric of government in Sri Lanka. Over the years, they grew to become more and more corrupt, ultimately highlighting on a kleptocracy.

Rajapaksa also moved Sri Lanka out of its traditional foreign policy orbit — that of a non-aligned country that was broadly pro-Western and generally prudent about it’s relations with India. Recently, Sri Lanka’s relations with both United States and India had become increasingly tense, largely more than Rajapaksa’s refusal to get back together with the Tamil minority or investigate claims of war offences.

Rajapaksa became ever closer to China, awarding Chinese companies lucrative infrastructure projects in return for large kickbacks. The relationship increasingly extended into the security realm, including giving China control of strategic ports. Visits of Chinese submarines to Colombo in late 2014 seemed to signal that Sri Lanka may be on the way to becoming a key defence partner for China in the Indian Ocean region.

However, all this came to a squealing halt in January 2015. Whenever Rajapaksa called a snap election in November 2014, the result seemed a foregone conclusion. In a dramatic change, one of his own cabinet ministers, Maithripala Sirisena, questioned him. In the space of a few weeks, Sirisena managed to put together the rainbow coalition and ultimately beat Rajapaksa well. Rajapaksa made another run for power in Sri Lanka’s parliamentary elections in August 2015 but again was soundly beaten, allowing Sirisena and his allies to consolidate their jobs.

These events are an indication that democratic instincts are deeply ingrained within Sri Lankan society. Rajapaksa’s defeat evolved as the result of several factors: a rejection of Rajapaksa’s endless triumphalism within the civil war and his rejection to reconcile with the Tamil community, the blatant corruption associated with Rajapaksa and his family, and worries over growing Chinese influence in the country.

For his part, Sirisena has done remarkably well for someone that came to power at the mind of a coalition whose main point of agreement was opposition in order to Rajapaksa. Sirisena signalled a new era in the governance of Sri Lanka by reversing the centralisation of power that had occurred under Rajapaksa. He pledged to only serve one term as president, transferred many presidential powers to the prime minister and set up independent commissions to oversee the judiciary, police and elections. Key people in the Rajapaksa family were imprisoned on corruption charges.

The new administration also took a few important steps towards reconciliation with the Tamil community. Tamils are progressively being brought back into nation-wide politics. There are plans to establish a completely independent domestic truth and reconciliation commission to examine atrocities committed during the civil war, in addition to compensate victims. This continues to be a contentious area, however the right signals are there.

Sirisena additionally decisively repositioned Sri Lanka’s international stance, specifically in reassuring New Delhi that Sri Lanka might take a ‘balanced’ stance and not permit itself to be used by The far east to threaten India. Narendra Modi created the first visit by an Indian prime minister to Sri Lanka in almost 30 years.

Sirisena has also tackled some controversial foreign investments. Plans to build huge casinos were scrapped. In addition, the Colombo Interface City project, awarded in order to Chinese companies under dubious circumstances, is being reviewed.

Sri Lanka’utes apparent move away from authoritarianism, kleptocracy and public division augurs well for its future. Sri Lanka is the wealthiest state within South Asia in per capita terms and in spite of suffering decades of civil war, its social indicators are among the best in the region. Even though economic growth slowed somewhat to 6.3 percent in 2015 because of political uncertainties, the Asian Development Bank a rebound to growth of around 7 percent in 2016.

If political stability and good governance could be maintained, Sri Lanka seems well positioned to take advantage of the developing economic integration between east and southern Asia. Its geographic location, educated labor force and relatively open economy allow it to be an attractive destination for low cost production industries that are moving out of Southeast Asia and China. Sri Lanka might be a major beneficiary of China’s Maritime Silk Route effort, which involves developing infrastructure as well as new special manufacturing zone although it will need to ensure that by doing this it does not antagonise New Delhi. In the coming years, Sri Lanka has the potential to become a ‘Bengal Tiger’ to competitor some of the East Asian economic tigers.

Sri Lanka’s year of democracy, reconciliation and rebalancing is republished along with permission from East Asian countries Forum