Category: Gold and Silver

  • A Peek at the US Dollar on the Verge of World War D

    The talk around the coffee machine within the Money Morning office has been focused nearly solely on one thing: The Globe War D conference starting this Monday.

    I’m excited. Actually, I think we all are.

    You see, while we take the time each day to share our thoughts, ideas and forecasts with you by email, all of us very rarely get to do that within person. And I know our publishers have some very special and perhaps even radical ideas up their sleeve with this conference.

    If you can’t make it, don’t worry. We’ve got you covered. You can place a pre-order for the DVD of the event here at a 25% discount. Also, throughout the 7 days we are going to share some of the ideas presented during the two day talk fest.

    In addition, of course, we’ll take advantage of social media. If you haven’t already added our Twitter handle @MoneyMorningAU, make sure you do.

    So, what else could you expect?

    The thing is, I’michael just not sure…

    Most of the editors have kept their presentations below wraps, with only the compliance guy getting a look in. I was assisting Nick Hubble, editor of The Money for a lifetime Letter run some statistical data for which our future population may look like. The end result? Two charts which move in opposite directions!

    Considering The Money for Life Letter is definitely an alternative newsletter for your twilight years, the results could be terrifying.

    Aside from our own editors, we have some incredible speakers presenting. Two presenters, Dr Marc Faber and Satyajit Das, are widely known for their out-of-the-box thinking. Both of these are the statistical outliers. The voices you don’t get to listen to in the mainstream press.

    And if they do get a guernsey on prime time, it’s rarely taken seriously. Often you’ll discover it’s only when something they’ve predicted actually happens, that somebody in the mainstream will dig out a quote from them – generally from years ago. The TV presenters may reluctantly agree that indeed, event A or event B was predictable.

    However, World War D isn’t our gloomy report about the global economic climate. It’s about a transition to a different economy and how to prepare for it.

    It’s as sound as a dollar

    That’s a line in the movie Cat on a Hot Tin Roof. And while the almighty American dollar may have been sound then, it ain’t right now.

    In 1958, even though gold prices were only USD$35 per ounce, each and every dollar in the United States was supported 10% by gold. Today, there is nothing backing the dollar except the term of the US government. But that’s OK because we’re this is not on a gold standard anymore, right?

    When the US dollar was still on a defacto standard in 1958, the M2 money supply was US$285 billion. Now, it’s US$11,112 million. In the same period, the gold reserves for America have dropped from 18,291 tonnes to eight,137 tonnes.

    Look at this way. The entire money supply of America has become 38 times higher, as the amount of gold held has shrunk to less than half.

    Why do I provide this up? Because the All of us dollar’s not sound.  The development in credit and money provide, and shrinking gold stockpiles isn’t conclusive proof of this. But it does help explain just how out of balance things are.

    The mammoth credit and fiat currency experiment is nearing an end. Moreover, there must be something else to take its place.

    But what?

    This is what the actual presenters will discuss at the World War D conference on Monday. Next week, I should be able to shed some light on how our presenters think our currency program will change. And what digital money will mean for you.

    In the meantime, have a great weekend. I hope to see you at the conference.

    One last thing. The same year US gold reserves started to fall and credit started a slow expansion, the very first microchip was developed. Chance, maybe?

    Shae Smith+
    Editor, Money Weekend

    Ed Note: World War D begins on Monday! Marc Faber, Jim Rickards, John Robb, Satyajit Das, Byron King and Richard Duncan – six from the brightest minds in global finance – are about to descend on Melbourne. If you can’t allow it to be don’t worry. We’ll be live tweeting the event throughout the two days. To obtain a blow-by-blow breakdown of everything happening from World War D follow us on Twitter right now @MoneyMorningAU and to see the event from Technology Analyst Sam Volkering’s point of view, follow him at @techinsider_sv.

  • How to Profit from the Currency Wars

    How to Profit from the Currency Wars

    canada_money

    On 14th January this year, one of the greatest ‘battles’ in the long running worldwide currency wars started.

    It took most investors by surprise.

    And for many investors, not only did it take them by surprise, but it wound up costing them millions, and in some cases, billions of dollars in losses.

    That event, that major battle, was when the Swiss Nationwide Bank ended its peg towards the euro in January this season.

    The Swiss had maintained a peg to the euro for three many years. Why would they do that? It had been all due to the European Main Bank’s (ECB) policy of devaluing the actual euro through money publishing.

    The ECB wanted to devalue the euro in order to help boost exports. It’s the same reason why the US wanted to devalue the US dollar by printing more.

    The trouble for Switzerland is that a devalued euro would mean an increase in value for the Switzerland franc. The Swiss feared that will result in a drop in exports and harm the Swiss economy.

    So the actual SNB pegged the Swiss franc to the euro. It meant that as the ECB printed euros to devalue its currency, the SNB would need to actively sell Swiss francs within the foreign exchange market, to push down the value of the franc.

    That too would involve printing money.

    But all of a sudden, in January this year, the SNB gave up. The ECB announced it planned to open up a brand new money printing program, and the SNB realised it just couldn’t maintain pace.

    So they decided to unpeg the Swiss franc from the euro. The impact on the currency markets was large. As Business Insider reported at the time:

    Hedge account manager Marko Dimitrijevic is closing their largest hedge fund, Everest Capital’s Global Fund, having lost almost all its money after the Switzerland National Bank (SNB) scrapped its three-year-old cap on the Swiss franc against eh euro, Bloomberg news reported upon Saturday.

    Citing a person familiar with the actual firm, Bloomberg said the fund had been betting that the Swiss franc would decline. The account had about $US830 million in asset at the end of 2014, according to a customer report cited by Bloomberg.

    The chart below gives you a clue to when the SNB abandoned the peg. See if you can spot it…


    Source: Bloomberg

    The Swiss franc appreciated by 23% over the euro within 24 hours.

    It was a stunning move. As the report above highlights, some funds lost a lot of money on it.

    But, not everyone lost. There have been plenty of savvy investors and institutions that made a eliminating on the SNB move.

    As Fortune noted simply two weeks later:

    Banks are finding their own way around the Volcker Rule in some unexpected ways. JPMorgan’s recent windfall from the Swiss franc — and Citi’s loss — is actually testament to that fact.

    Earlier this 30 days, traders at the nation’s biggest bank made $300 million in one day, following news the Swiss central bank was taking its cap off the franc. That caused the currency to soar, and JPMorgan traders took the move, actually, to the bank.

    Why did the Swiss franc move this way? Because of the global currency wars.

    Now, era of this extreme nature are abnormal. They don’t happen all the time. But other events, mostly of a smaller nature, perform happen…and they happen more frequently than you may think.

    And not just in the currency markets either.

    Look at the following chart. It’s of the gold price in US dollars.

    From late December to mid-January, it moved nearly 11%.


    Source: Bloomberg

    Why did gold go ballistic like this? Because of the global currency wars.

    Cop a look at another chart, this time of the Brazilian real. It moved 27.8% in just 8 weeks:


    Source: Bloomberg

    Why did this happen? Because of the global currency wars.

    From 03 to April this year, Brazil’s IBovespa index gained 20.2%.


    Source: Bloomberg

    Why did it do this? Because of the global currency conflicts.

    In 2013, Indonesia’s main stock catalog fell 23.6% in 3 months. Why? Because of the global forex wars.


    Source: Bloomberg

    Look at any of the charts I’ve shown you and you’ll see big price movements over relatively short periods of time. Many of these are a result of the global currency wars.

    It’s these price movements, associated with the currency wars, that we’re targeting with a brand new trading advisor, Currency Wars Trader.

    Just note one thing. Even if this service aims to help people profit from (or protect their own wealth from) the global currency wars, it doesn’t involve currency trading.

    This new service aims to help investors and traders profit from the actual currency wars without really trading in currencies themselves.

    It’s a unique trading service. It doesn’t involve technical analysis. And if a person so choose, it doesn’t need to involve leverage either (although if you want to sensibly employ influence, we’ll show you how).

    And it’s not fundamental analysis in the conventional way either. Our strategist and analysts aren’t looking at company balance sheets and profit and loss statements as you’d expect.

    This is what We call ‘macro-fundamental’ analysis. It’s exploring the big economic news and events, looking for hidden triggers within the market, using our strategist’s unique approach.

    After the strategist offers identified these triggers as well as signals, it’s then up to the analysts to apply that to a specific investment idea.

    That calls for buying or selling a particular type of investment that they believe is best placed to profit the most from an anticipated move.

    It’s sure to be controversial. This is a strategy that until now has been unavailable to the ordinary investor. But now, as the global currency wars gain maintain, and have an ever greater influence on the markets, it’s only right that we make this strategy open to you now.

    Cheers,

    Kris

  • Understanding the Death of the US Dollar

    Understanding the Death of the US Dollar

    US Dollars

    In spite of our dismal expense landscape, financial cheerleaders still influx their pom-poms and urge you to buy stocks and bonds ‘for the long run’. You only need to look at bond marketplaces to see what I mean.

    Short term Treasuries possess almost no yield. Long-term Treasuries offer 2% if the investor is prepared to wager on no inflation for 10 years.

    High-yield corporate debt is loaded with credit risk at this stage from the cycle. The defaults are likely to pile up as we enter a worldwide growth recession in early 2016.

    Yet you’re urged to blindly enter this market. Based on assurances that all is well and the next Two decades will echo the past Two decades.

    Meanwhile, the financial foundation constructed on the dollar is rotting away.

    The historical precedent for the slow loss of reserve currency status is the strange case associated with sterling. The story begins with a geopolitical event far removed from the keeping track of rooms of London — the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of the AustroHungarian Empire, by a Serbian terrorist in Sarajevo upon 28 June 1914.

    When the First World War started on 28 July, 30 days after the assassination of the Archduke, all of the major belligerents immediately suspended the conversion of their currencies into gold except the UK. The conventional view was that nations needed to hoard gold as well as print money to pay for the war, which is why they suspended convertibility.

    The UK took a different strategy. By maintaining the link to precious metal, London maintained its credit rating. This enabled the UK to borrow to pay for the war. It had been John Maynard Keynes who convinced the united kingdom to remain on the gold standard. It was Jack Morgan, son of JP Morgan, who organised massive loans in New York to support the British war effort.

    Initially there were large outflows of gold from the US to the UK. Even though the United kingdom remained on the gold standard, investors sold stocks, bonds as well as land in the US, converted the proceeds into gold, after which shipped the gold towards the Bank of England.

    In The fall of 1914, the flow of precious metal suddenly reversed. The Uk needed US exports of meals, wool, cotton, oil, as well as weapons. All of this had to be paid for either in gold or lbs sterling that could be converted into gold. The gold that had flowed eastern from New York to Birmingham now began to flow western from London to New York.

    From November 1914 until the end of the war in November 1918, there were huge gold inflows to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and its private member banks. It was at this time that the dollar emerged as a brand new global reserve currency in order to challenge the supremacy of sterling.

    The process of the dollar replacing sterling began in November 1914, but there wasn’t any immediate or sudden fall of sterling. Throughout the 1920s, the actual dollar and sterling competed side-by-side for that role of leading reserve currency. Scholar Barry Eichengreen offers documented how the dollar as well as sterling took turns in the leading role with the lead transferring back-and-forth several times.

    But by 1931, the race was becoming one-sided. The buck was starting to pull away. Winston Churchill experienced blundered by pegging sterling to gold at an unrealistic rate in 1925. The actual super strong sterling that resulted decimated UK trade, and set the UK in a depression 3 years before the rest of the world. UK trade deficits caused Commonwealth trading partners such as Australia and Canada to get stuck with huge unwanted reserves in sterling.

    The increase of the dollar, and the constant decline of sterling continued through the 1930s until the start of the Second World War in 1939. At that point, the UK hanging the convertibility of sterling into gold. The international monetary system broke down for the second time in 25 years. Normal trade, currency exchange, and gold convertibility remained suspended until the international monetary system could be reformed.

    This reform happened at the Bretton Woods international monetary conference held in New Hampshire in July 1944. That conference marked the final ascendency of the dollar because the leading global reserve currency.

    From 1944 to 1971, major currencies, including sterling, were pegged to the dollar. The dollar was pegged to gold at US$35.00 per ounce. Bretton Forest was the definitive finish to the role of sterling as the leading reserve currency. The conference enshrined the dollar in the leading reserve currency part — a position it has held since.

    The point of this history is to show that the replacement of sterling by the dollar as the leading book currency was not an event, it had been a process. The process played out more than 30 years, from 1914 to 1944. It involved a seesaw dynamic by which sterling would try to reclaim the crown only to lose it again.

    With hindsight it is possible to see that the actual turning point took place in November 1914 when gold outflows from the All of us reversed and became inflows. Those inflows ongoing until 1950 despite two globe wars, and the Great Depressive disorders.

    Yet, no one saw the fall at the time.

    From the Bank of England’s perspective, November 1914 may have seen gold outflows, but no one believed the entire process of decline was inevitable or even irreversible. The belief in London was that Britain would earn the war, maintain the kingdom, and preserve sterling’s position because the most valued currency on the planet.

    Britain did win the war, but the cost was too great. They lost the actual empire and sterling lost its role as the leading reserve currency. The issue for traders today is whether the US buck already had its November 1914 moment.

    Is it possible that the collapse of the US dollar as the leading reserve currency has already begun? The answer is ‘yes’.

    Looking at the huge flows of gold in order to China, the rise of a buck competitor in the form of the SDR, and the coming inclusion of the Chinese yuan in the SDR basket, it is difficult to not conclude that the dollar fall has already begun.

    Yet, like the collapse of sterling a century ago, the decline of the dollar won’t necessarily happen overnight.

    It is a slow, steady process.

    Jim Rickards,

    Strategist, Strategic Intelligence

    From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

    Special Report: If you want to get ahead in this world, it pays to have effective friends in high locations. With this new advisory, you’ll make one. A portfolio manager at the West Shore Group, and adviser on international economics and financial threats towards the US Department of Defense. Jim Rickards isn’t any ordinary financial newsletter author.?And Strategic Intelligence is no ordinary e-newsletter… (more)

  • What Can You Do To Protect Your Investments?

    What Can You Do To Protect Your Investments?

    gold and silver rings_lge

    There’s nothing like a battle in the Middle East to fire in the oil price. News that Saudi Arabia launched air strikes across the Yemeni border sent the oil cost up nearly 4.5% last week.

    Gold had a strong reaction as well, rallying to nearly US$1,220 an ounce in London industry before retreating during the US program. Aussie dollar gold had a good session too, closing from $1,540 an ounce after falling to a low of $1,475 just a 7 days earlier.

    As I’ve been stating, the US dollar gold cost that you hear quoted everyday continues to be lacklustre. But the Aussie dollar precious metal price — the price that matters for you personally if you’re investing in Aussie listed gold stocks — looks much more good.

    If you want to know how to take advantage of this emerging new trend, click here.

    The conflict in Yemen is another proxy battle between Iran and Saudi Arabia, following on from the tragic ordeal that is Syria. Yemen has been a failed state for some time now and has provided the actual impetus for the Iranian backed Houthis to gain a foothold of power.

    The Saudi’utes aren’t happy about it; therefore, the launch of airstrikes and a large troop buildup on the border. Whether this particular escalates or dies down from here is anyone’s guess.

    Regardless, under the surface there is a slow change in the balance of energy in the Middle East. Iran’s impact is rising. The Saudis are under stress. The proxy war between the two within Syria has been going for years. This really is probably the start of a similar situation in Yemen.

    As an investor, is this anything you should worry about? Not immediately. But there’s no doubt the troubles in the area will continue to have a greater impact in the West.

    The Syrian conflict gave rise to ISIS. Another war will just create another generation associated with young men without hope, fuelling revolutionary ideologies and violence. Great.

    Is there anything you can do about it? Not really. You can be tolerant as well as understanding, non-judgemental and compassionate in your life. Good and decent behaviour comes with a flow on impact, even if you don’t see where it flows.

    But wait! Our beat is money, not really morality or virtue. Therefore let’s get selfish and focus on what you can control in the world of money and materialism.

    You can control your investment decisions where you get your ideas, which is why you’re reading this non-mainstream publication. You’ve clearly decided to take greater control over your money by becoming more informed as well as perhaps investing yourself.

    On that front, I have something that might be of great interest to you. Over the weekend break, we launched a new support focussed on income opportunities called Total Income. You’ve heard from Editor Matt Hibbard throughout last week during these pages, but if you’re like me, you probably have a number of questions about what the service will be regarding.

    With that in mind, I sat down with Matt Fri to ask a few probing questions about Total Income. We chatted for about 30 minutes. I’m a pretty erratic interviewer, so the below Q&A is an modified version.

    I started by requesting a question based on an important stage that Matt raised in his very first essay, on Monday last week…

    You mentioned in your first essay last week that allowing for risk [Editor’s note: making sure you don’t overpay for a stock simply to obtain the yield] is the most important thing income investors must do. But how do they do this inside a world of central bank manipulation that deliberately mis-prices risk?

    What I intended by that comment was that you have to distinguish between the different types of results paying companies. It’s about putting a risk premium on cash flows — smaller, much less established dividend payers would probably be a more risky investment than a larger company by having an established record of paying out dividends. In other words, it isn’t just a straight line process of going through the cash balance, EPS (earnings per share) and dividend growth, as well as making a recommendation without taking into account the risk attached to the cash flows.

    In relation to your question about main banks manipulating the risk premium, it’s true and something that all income investors need to be conscious of. But no one knows how long this state of affairs continues. It could be like this for years to come.

    My technique to deal with it is to focus on asset allocation, diversification, and low levels of leverage. People need to be totally aware of the potential risks that central banks have formulated with their low rates and money publishing, even if the market isn’t adequately pricing in those risks.

    The other thing to keep an eye on is inflation…

    Well that brings me to another question I had. Normally, higher inflation is good for earnings investors as it often leads to higher interest rates and dividends. However in today’s world, persistent concerns over deflation have kept interest rates reduced and asset prices high. To what extent are you concerned that rising inflation might cause a big fall in asset prices, negating the benefits of receiving an income yield?

    Like many people, I’ve found it hard to believe that years of cash printing won’t lead to a rise in inflation in the future. But we haven’t seen it yet and we may not view it for years to come. We’re in uncharted territory. No one knows exactly what lies ahead. It could be years of more of the identical or something completely different. All investors can do is deal with the problems as they are.

    One thing I expect to do is keep a close eye on the number of inflation statistics and offer these in the newsletter in an ‘income dashboard’, so members can monitor this stuff regularly and get a sense of how the marketplace is reacting to the prospects associated with inflation.

    Going back to your previously comment on asset allocation as well as diversification, what does this mean in terms of of what stocks and sectors you’ll be looking at?

    The primary aim of the newsletter is to go beyond the obvious ‘dividend payers’ like the banks or Telstra. There are hundreds of results payers in the market and my work is to uncover the quality companies that can sustain a dividend through the economic cycle. So I’lmost all be focussing on an ‘overlooked’ area of the market for sustainable dividend payers, if you want to put it that way.

    The other aspect to keep in mind is that the dividend payers I’lmost all be recommending are long-term holdings. I recognise people need earnings from stocks for the long term and are less concerned about short term marketplace fluctuations. So I’m not going to try and time entry into and out of stocks. When the fundamentals are strong and also the divvy is sustainable, I’m happy to buy and hold.

    What does that mean for mining stocks as income payers? Will they feature in Total Income at all?

    Yes and no. A lot of the miners don’capital t pay a dividend anyhow. And some only do from cycle highs, which doesn’capital t satisfy my demand for sustainable dividends through the cycle.

    One thing I will look at is a ‘special situation’ pick where I might look at a BHP, RIO…or a Woodside or Santos. It might be where it’s close to a cycle base for their particular or dominant commodity and they are paying out a sustainable dividend that should increase as commodity prices recover. It will be on the case by case basis, but these people won’t feature heavily.

    Thanks Shiny and best of luck with Total Income!

    To learn more about Matt’s methods for income trading and the initial recommendations that Total Income released with on Saturday, click here.

    Regards,

    Greg Canavan,
    Editor, Sound Money. Sound Opportunities.

    From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

    Special Report: You’lso are about to discover a radically different way to build wealth. It’s the same alter market veteran Matt Hibbard created after 30 years battling away in the financial markets. These days he or she lives a relaxed, comfy life on Victoria’s Bellarine Peninsula…happier and more financially secure than he ever was prior to. And when you finish watching his brand new video, you’ll be with that road too.

  • Currency In the Year 2025

    Currency In the Year 2025

    Downtrend stacks coins,on the financial stock charts as background. Selective focus

    As I awoke this morning, Weekend 1 June 2025, from stressed dreams, I found the insect-sized sensor implanted in my arm was already awake.

    We call it a ‘bug’. US citizens have been required to have them since 2022 to gain access to government health care.

    The bug understood from its biometric monitoring of my brain wave frequencies and rapid eye movement that I would awake momentarily. It was already at work launching systems, including the coffee maker.

    I could smell the actual coffee brewing in the kitchen. The information screens on the inside of my panopticon goggles were already flashing before my personal eyes.

    Images of world leaders were on the screen. They were issuing claims about the fine health of their financial systems and the advent of world serenity. Citizens, they explained, required to work in accordance with the ” new world ” Order Growth Plan to maximise wealth for all.

    I knew this was propaganda, but I couldn’t ignore it. Removing your panopticon goggles is viewed with mistrust by the neighbourhood watch committees. Your ‘bug’ controls all the channels.

    I’m mainly interested in economics and financial, as I have been for decades. I’ng told the central authorities that I’m an economic historian, so they’ve given me access to records and information that they deny to many citizens in the name of national economic security.

    My work now’s only historical, because marketplaces were abolished after the Panic of 2018. That was not the original intention of the authorities. They designed to close markets ‘temporarily’ to stop the stress, but once the markets were shut, there was no way to reopen them without the panic starting once again.

    Today, trust in markets is completely gone. All investors want is their money back. Authorities started printing money following the Panic of 2008, however that solution stopped working through 2018. Probably because so much had been printed in 2017 under QE7. When the actual panic hit, money was viewed as worthless. So marketplaces were simply closed.

    Between 2018 as well as 2020, the Group of 20 major powers, the G-20, abolished all currencies except for the US buck, the euro and the ruasia.

    The All of us dollar became the local currency in North and South America. European countries, Africa and Australia used the euro. The ruasia was the only real new currency — a combination of the old Russian ruble, Chinese yuan and Japanese yen — and was adopted as the nearby currency in Asia.

    There is also new world money called special sketching rights, or SDRs for short. They’re used only for settlements between countries, however. Everyday people use the dollar, euro or ruasia for daily transactions.

    The SDR is also utilized to set energy prices so that as a benchmark for the value of the three local currencies. The World Central Bank, formerly the actual IMF, administers the SDR system under the direction of the G-20. As a result of the set exchange rates, there’s no currency trading.

    All of the gold within the world was confiscated within 2020 and placed in a nuclear bomb-proof vault dug into the Swiss Alps. The mountain vault have been vacated by the Swiss military and made available to the World Central Bank for this purpose. All G-20 countries contributed their national gold to the vault. All private precious metal was forcibly confiscated and put into the Swiss vault too. All gold mining have been nationalised and suspended on environmental grounds.

    The purpose of the Swiss vault was not to have gold backing for currencies. It was to remove gold from the financial system completely so it could never be utilized as money again. Therefore, gold trading ceased because its production, use and possession were banned. Through these means, the G-20 and also the World Central Bank control the only forms of money.

    Some lucky types had purchased gold in 2015 as well as sold it when it reached US$40,000 per ounce in 2019. By then, inflation was unmanageable and the power elites knew that confidence in paper currencies have been lost.

    The only way to re-establish control of money was to confiscate precious metal. But those who sold near the top were able to purchase property or art, which the authorities did not confiscate.

    Those who by no means owned gold in the first place saw their savings, retirement incomes, retirement benefits and insurance policies turn to dust when the hyperinflation began.

    Now it seems so obvious. The only way to preserve wealth with the Panic of 2018 was to have gold, land and fine art. But investors not only required to have the foresight to purchase it…they also had to be nimble enough to market the gold before the confiscation in 2020, and then buy more land and art and hang about it. For that reason, many lost everything.

    Land and personal property were not confiscated, because much of it was required for living arrangements and agriculture. Personal property was too difficult to confiscate and of little use to the state. Fine art was lumped in with cheap art as well as mundane personal property and ignored.

    Stock and bond trading were stopped when the markets closed. Throughout the panic selling after the crash of 2018, stocks were wiped out.

    Too, the value of all bonds were wiped out in the hyperinflation of 2019. Governments closed stock as well as bond markets, nationalised all companies and declared a moratorium on just about all debts. World leaders at first explained it as an effort in order to ‘buy time’ to come up with a plan to unfreeze the actual markets, but over time, these people realized that trust and confidence had been permanently destroyed, and there was no point in trying.

    Wiped-out savers broke out in money riots soon after but were rapidly suppressed by militarised police who utilized drones, night vision technology, body armour and electronic monitoring. Highway tollbooth digital scanners were utilised to spot and interdict those who tried to flee by car.

    By 2017, the US government required sensors on all cars. It was all too easy for officials to turn off the motors of those who were government targets, spot their locations as well as arrest them on the side of the road.

    In compensation for citizens’ wealth having been ruined by inflation and confiscation, governments dispersed digital Social Units known as Social Shares and Sociable Donations. These were based on a person’utes previous wealth. Americans below a certain level of wealth obtained Social Shares that titled them to a guaranteed income.

    Those above a certain level of wealth got Social Donation units that required them to give their wealth to the state. Over time, the result would be a redistribution of wealth so that everyone experienced about the same net worth and the exact same standard of living. The French economist Thomas Piketty was the principal consultant to the G-20 and World Central Bank on this project.

    To facilitate the gradual freezing associated with markets, confiscation of wealth and creation of Social Units, globe governments coordinated the elimination of cash in 2016. The ‘cashless society’ was offered to citizens as a comfort. No more dirty, grubby cash and bills to carry around!

    Instead, you could pay with smart cards and mobile phones and could transfer money online. Only when the removal of cash was complete do citizens realise that digital money intended total control by federal government. This made it easy to adopt former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers’ idea of negative interest rates. Governments simply subtracted amounts from its citizens’ bank accounts each month.

    Without cash, there was no way to prevent the digital deductions.

    The government could also monitor all of your transactions as well as digitally freeze your account if you disagreed with their tax or financial policy. In fact, a new category of hate crime for ‘thoughts against monetary policy’ was enacted by executive order. The penalty had been digital elimination of the wealth of those guilty of dissent.

    The entire procedure unfolded in small stages so that investors and citizens barely noticed before it was past too far. Gold had been the best way to preserve wealth from 2015-18, but in the end, it had been confiscated because the power elites understood it could not be allowed.

    First, they eliminated cash in 2016. Then they eliminated diverse foreign currencies and stocks in 2018. Lastly came the hyperinflation of 2019, which wiped out most wealth, followed through gold confiscation and the digital socialism associated with 2020.

    By last year, 2024, free markets, private property and entrepreneurship were things of the past. All that remains associated with wealth is land, fine art and some (illegal) gold.

    The only other valuable assets are person talents, provided you can deploy all of them outside the system of state-approved work.

    Regards,

    Jim Rickards
    for Money Morning

    James G. Rickards is the strategist for Strategic Intelligence, the newest newsletter from Port Phillip Publishing. He is an American lawyer, economist, and investment banker with 35 years of experience working in capital markets on Walls Street. He is the author of The New York Times bestsellers Currency Wars and The Dying of Money. Jim also can serve as Chief Economist for West Shoreline Group.

  • How Gold Reacted to the Interest Rate Rise

    How Gold Reacted to the Interest Rate Rise

    Lots of gold coins

    The rate-induced ‘crash’ already happened

    Do you know, the Federal Book finally lifted its standard interest rate yesterday? Of course you realize this! This has got to be one of the biggest news in monetary media in 2015.

    Prior to the rate hike, there were a lot of forecasts on the date and effect of the Fed’s decisions. From things i have seen, the immediate response to the rate hike has been very positive across all markets.

    My own prediction was for that Fed to maintain interest rates at ‘zero’ until there is a meaningful base in the Chinese economy as well as commodity prices. I was incorrect on that…

    However, my prediction around the reaction of the market was appropriate, at least for now. I believed that the marketplace would respond positively to the hike, because they would view it as a positive sign that the global economy is at a firmer footing.

    Many believed the marketplace would respond very adversely to the Fed raising prices, because after all, QE and reduced rates have kept stock markets going strong. So the reverse would be true if accommodative monetary policy was to end.

    I believed the market would have formed another expectation after receiving sufficient warnings from the Fed. However, I did believe the lack of stimulus would be the same as withdrawing support from the market.

    The question now’s: will market rise or fall?

    I am increasingly discovering myself to side with the actual ‘Bears’. However, I don’t think the marketplace will necessarily have a accident.

    I have a feeling that the commodity collapse and the market slump in the past few months were the result of anticipating a rate take-off anyways. In another word, the fall already happened. It didn’t need to happen after the official announcement; it was already priced in to the market via expectations.

    How regarding gold? Well, gold is a precious metal and it tracks the commodity basket. It is heavily affected by the energy price.

    However, gold does tend to gain when markets see risk and ‘run for safety’. Not this time… the item collapse was itself the issue, and it kept gold low.

    There was no new information in the market, we knew China was slowing, we knew the Fed would raise rates, we knew commodity deflation had not stopped. So, there was not enough of an emotional push to make the market ‘run’ for gold.

    I ‘m anticipating a prolonged bottoming process within commodities as well as gold. This can easily see poor prices drag on well into the New Year.

    Ken Wangdong+
    Emerging Market Analyst, New Frontier Investor

  • Stocks Fly, Oil Rallies, Gold Flounders

    This just in!

    Instead of printing over a trillion dollars within stimulus per year, the Federal Book announced on Thursday that it will print only $900 billion.

    Whew.

    We dodged a bullet there. For a while I thought the stimulus printing was getting out of hand, but now with this ‘huge’ cutback, looks like our future is inflation free!

    [Squinting and turning my personal head back and forth] Errrr, maybe we ought to take a look at what yesterday’s Fed announcement REALLY means…

    First up let’s take a step back.

    Had you asked if the Fed would announce its official tapering plan in 2013, your editor’s answer would have been ‘no’.

    It didn’t seem like the time nor place to make an official announcement.

    Ah, but that crazy-bastard Bernanke usually tosses a good screwball. Happy holidays marketplace watchers!

    With a quick announcement the top of the Fed, in what could be one of his last actions because chairman, gave a concrete cutback on stimulus spending. Heading forward (starting in January), the actual Fed will purchase $75 billion in bonds per month, instead of the previous $85 billion. (Particularly, the Fed will purchase $5 billion less per month of both mortgage backed securities and treasuries.)

    I guess old Ben was sick of hearing the actual catchy phrase from the speaking heads ‘over a trillion bucks of stimulus per year’.

    At any rate, after yesterday’s statement we’ve backed off of which 13-digit per year print fest. Arrive January we’re back down to a comfortable 12-digit per year print fest (that’s a ‘9’ followed by 11 ‘0’s.)

    The markets rejoiced. After the 2pm announcement shares represented by the Dow Jones were upward a combined 292 points (1.84%). Oil and many commodities followed suit. The way the number-crunchers saw it, less stimulus meant the market had been indeed strengthening. A stronger marketplace means higher stocks, more burnt crude, more iPads, more grilled tacos, and so forth.

    But there is a dunce in the corner…

    After the Given announcement, gold traders going to the exits. Not inside a big way, but in orderly fashion – this is a civilized team, mind you. However, it’s all hands on deck – we’ll want to maintain tallying up daily moves in gold. We’re continuing to see where the market likes to buy and sell – and over time, as it always happens, we’ll get a read on the metal’s next mid-term direction.

    That said, my outlook remains unchanged at the moment. Gold remains under pressure and needs to find a degree of support before re-establishing an upward trend. So far we can’t appear to hold support at $1,Two hundred and fifty. However, looking at a 30-day graph, as well as the 6-month chart, there seems modest support at $1,200. Will it hold? We’ll see! One thing that’s certain, although, is that this marks the next important collection in the sand for gold. Stay tuned to price action.

    However let’s connect some more dots.

    The Fed announces the infamous taper and gold remains somewhat range-bound. As of typing this particular note the metal hasn’capital t plummeted through $1,200; that’utes a telling sign in itself. Especially if you’re a long-term owner of the Midas metal.

    I still like long-term gold. If anything the Fed’utes taper announcement gave us a look behind the drape. We moved from a small over a trillion per year in stimulus to a little under a trillion per year in stimulus. Indeed, you don’t quit this kind of monetary meth cold-turkey.

    That said, we’ve entered the next stage of the monetary shell game. How much will the next blend amount be? When will the following taper announcement be? What about interest rates?

    There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead in 2014.

    But one thing is perfect for sure. Stimulus is going to be with us for a while – and that means rising cost of living can’t be far at the rear of. Truly, the US government – particularly the Given – can only print so much money and sell so many low-interest homes prior to we’ve all go to pay the monetary piper.

    Will that inflation strike in 2014 or in 2024? Your guess is as good as mine.

    But rest assured that the Midas metal – with regard to ‘buy and hold’ investors – will remain a store for wealth for many years. When we see an opportunity to ‘buy the dips’ or play the downside from a trading standpoint, we’ll keep you posted.

    In the meantime let’s give a hearty hurrah for Ben Bernanke. He finally drawn back the curtain – and the casino looks about the same on the inside.

    Keep your boots muddy,

    Matt Insley
    Contributing Publisher, Money Morning

    Ed Note: Stock Fly, Oil Rallies, Gold Flounders originally appeared in Daily Resource Hunter, USA.

  • What Does Our Resources Expert Think About Gold Stocks?

    What Does Our Resources Expert Think About Gold Stocks?

    At what point does a crash quit being a crash and become an opportunity?

    That’s the conversation your editor had with Diggers and Drillers resources analyst Jason Stevenson yesterday afternoon.

    But we weren’t talking about any old accident.

    We were talking about one of the biggest crashes of history three years.

    That’s right, gold and gold stocks.

    We wanted to know Jason’s take on whether now was the right time to buy…

    Let’s look at the proof.

    First, the overall position of item prices. This week the Reserve Bank of Australia released the latest Index of Item prices. It’s not a pretty picture for mining companies.


    Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
    Click to enlarge

    There’utes no doubt the index associated with commodity prices looks amazingly like the price chart of most asset bubbles.

    It has the initial rise, the sell-off, followed by the recovery as investors assume the worst is over, and finally the beginning of the real crash.

    If most other asset pockets are anything to go by, item prices could have much further to visit. But what about gold and precious metal stocks? Well, if you think the above chart looks bad, simply wait until you see these subsequent charts…

    The Big Bubble That Never Quite Happened

    We’re sure you remember once the gold price hit US$1,921 in September 2011. It seemed that a rise to US$2,000 and above had been inevitable.

    We’ll admit that we think it is inevitable. We thought it may be the big one…gold would soon trade at US$2,000 then US$3,000 and perhaps even US$5,000.

    But that never happened. In fact, gold proceeded to go the other way. This morning it’utes trading at US$1,221. As we said at the start of this year, even though we’re still happy to buy gold, the great precious metal bull market is on maintain for now.

    How long it will stay on hold is anyone’s guess. Just about all we know is that the worst won’t be over until even the biggest gold market bulls have finally given up. At that point the next phase of the gold bull market will begin.

    That could take months, and more likely, years.

    But this isn’t just the gold price that has taken a beating. Below is a chart for the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF [NYSE: GDX] and the Market Vectors Gold Junior Miners ETF [NYSE: GDXJ]:


    Source: Google Finance
    Click to enlarge

    These indices have fallen 66.5% and 78.5% respectively since Sept 2011.

    Over the past year, just when it seemed they couldn’capital t fall any further, they’ve defied belief and…fallen further. As an optimist on the future and on stock prices, it’s tempting to think which this is the bottom for gold stocks.

    But do we have 100% conviction with that? And more importantly, does our resources analyst?

    Pit-Bull v the Sober Analyst

    We put the question to Jason yesterday.

    You’ve got to understand that your editor is like a pit-bull yanking at the leash eager to make the most of the collapse in sources stock prices.

    So it’s fortunate that we’ve got a resources expert like Jason who can have a sober and analytical approach to resource stocks. Like your editor, Jason likes the fundamentals for gold, and he likes the potential for giant gains from gold shares.

    What he’s not so keen on is trying – as he put it – ‘to catch a falling knife‘ as some of these gold stocks continue to fall.

    Now you may think that as contrarian investors we should plunge in to recommend these stocks. And it’s feasible Jason will do that. He’utes running the numbers on a bunch of resource stocks right now.

    But remember what we’ve said prior to. Contrarian investing isn’t about doing the opposite of everyone else, it’s about getting into an opportunity simply ahead of everyone else. In other words, just before or just as the market changes direction.

    Of course, you’ll never get the timing perfectly correct as a contrarian investor. Sometimes the market stops falling, but it can take months before it turns greater. That could mean locking your money for some time while you wait around.

    Waiting for the ‘No-Brainer’ Day to Buy Precious metal Stocks

    As it stands today gold stocks are super risky. But if you’re a speculator that may be only the kind of risk you’re happy to take. If you’re a more conservative investor, because Jason still sees some dangers that gold stocks could fall further, you may want to wait a little longer before taking a punt upon gold stocks.

    Naturally, that view could change at any point over the times, weeks and months ahead.

    One thing’s for sure: the mixed value of all gold shares won’t fall to zero. At some point there will be a clear no-brainer decision to buy gold shares.

    We’ve written in Money Morning previously that we see the resources sector as one of the best places to earn speculative gains in 2014. As the dedicated resources analyst for that investment newsletter Diggers and Drillers Jason Stevenson is excited about the potential too.

    The task now is to find the best stocks on the market, value them, and then make a decision on when to buy. That’ll be a tall order with over 1,000 resources shares on the ASX…

    But it’s a challenge Jason is prepared to take.

    Cheers,
    Kris+

    From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

    Special Report: The ‘Wonder Weld’ That may Triple Your Money

  • Investing Amidst the Gold Market Ruins

    Investing Amidst the Gold Market Ruins

    Never laugh at live dragons,’ wrote J. R. R. Tolkien in his classic book The Hobbit, published in 1937.

    Tolkien was on to something, I believe. His words come to mind since i keep seeing more and more information about China – the national indication of which is the dragon – and its many citizens buying more and more gold. It’s fair to say that China and also the Chinese hoard yellow metal.

    Not sometime ago, for example, I saw video of Chinese rioting over access to the gold-selling mall in Shanghai. Evidently, some Chinese are desperate to convert their currency into gold. It’s a gold-lust much like that of Tolkien’s gold-loving dragon named Smaug:

    There he lay, a vast red-golden dragon, fast asleep…about him on all sides stretching away across the unseen floors, lay countless piles associated with precious things, gold wrought and unwrought, gems and jewels, as well as silver red-stained in the ruddy light… [The] hobbit could see his underparts and his long pale belly crusted along with gems and fragments associated with gold from his lengthy lying on his costly bed.

    If you’re looking for gold, We don’t recommend walking into the lair of the fire-breathing dragon. But I’m okay with accumulating gold and gold shares by way of less dangerous means, and today I’ll explain my logic.

    In fact, despite a generally ‘down’ market for gold this year, I’ve got my eyes on cheap miners. Some of these shares are going to be a great buy from current, beaten-down gold prices. And looking ahead – within the long-term – what if gold prices increase?

    Considering an economy marked by low interest rates and all types of bizarre government policies, long-term gold fundamentals are still holding true.

    What about Those Chinese?

    First, let’s visit again Chinese gold-buying. It’s just amazing. The Chinese government and people are buying gold by the tonne (metric lot). See the nearby chart associated with Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong, showing strong, steady accumulation over the past two years.


    Click to enlarge

    In particular numbers, since September 2011, China has imported 2,116 tonnes of gold. That is, in just over two years, China offers imported almost the equivalent of the entire gold reserves of France (2,435 tonnes) or Italy (2,451 tonnes).

    According to the World Precious metal Council, about one-third of China’s gold imports are due to individual Chinese purchasers who want to own ‘personal’ gold, as bullion and/or jewellery. That is, the buyers are people who don’t want to tie up their wealth within the Chinese yuan – the national currency. There’s also a modest amount of brought in gold going for industrial use in electronics and such.

    Much of the rest of the precious metal going to China – well over half – is, apparently, destined for the Chinese central bank. This gold is supposed to back up government monetary coverage.

    Like Smaug the dragon, the Chinese perform what they do. Or look at it one other way. Here in the West, monetary players and many mainstream media commentators heap disdain upon gold. The conventional wisdom is to sell precious metal.

    We see that conventional wisdom reflected when minimal gold prices fall and large gold holders like SPDR Precious metal Shares (GLD) liquidate holdings. Obviously, for every seller, there’s a purchaser, and right now, on net balance, the Chinese are buying every oz sold, and then a few.

    It’s not far-fetched to believe that despite the harsh words of Western ‘experts’ against gold, the People’utes Bank of China (PBOC) is actually making good on it’s quietly stated long-term goal of developing a gold-backed national currency.

    Meanwhile, China is actually making trade deals with a web host of nations in which individuals nations trade with China using their own national currencies and also the Chinese renminbi (the currency used in international trade). This cuts the united states dollar out of the cycle.

    There are deep issues to ponder here. Why are Chinese people as well as their government so eager to purchase and import gold? What will they know? Why does the Chinese government make so many bilateral trade deals? Why don’t the Chinese desire to use the dollar? What’s the strategy at work?

    Really, don’t the Chinese know that yellow metal is just a so-called ‘barbarous relic’ within the eyes of many Western economists as well as political gurus? Are the Chinese trying to take the world back again to the days of Middle Planet and hobbits?

    What Do the Gold Cost Charts Tell Us?

    Let’s follow the facts and look at gold price charts. As you can see in the chart beneath, the price of gold declined this year, after a long run-up over the past decade:


    Click to enlarge

    See the close-up chart below, associated with gold prices this year, showing the actual 2013 decline in more detail. It’utes a steady price deterioration, although perhaps we’re near the end of this downturn. Could precious metal prices fall further? I hope not really, but never say never.

    In the past year, the price decline for gold has dragged down share prices across the gold-mining field too. Here’s a 10-year chart for the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX: NYSE). For the sake associated with comparison, I’ve thrown in the Market Vectors Gold ETF (GLD: NYSE) as well.


    Click to enlarge

    So here’s what we should know. China is posting large amounts of gold. Western holders are selling gold, as evidenced by the GLD decline and outflow. And gold miners are harming, as we see from GDX.

    In short, The year 2013 has been a strange year for gold. China lit the physical gold market on fire along with overall purchases and imports. But you’d never know this from gold’s price, which has fallen more than 20%.

    Investing Amongst the Golden Ruins

    After all of this, what do we really know? In the Western world, big holders are selling gold – GLD and so on. In the East, multitudes associated with Chinese are buying. What should you do?

    On the one hand, be careful plunging into a turbulent gold and mining share marketplace. Gold is not the latest trading fad, to be sure. Gold does not have that sexy allure of the latest high-tech vaporware or the aluminized hand-held device that’ll be obsolete in eight months.

    On the other hand, if you foresee rising gold prices over the long term in an era of volcanic federal government spending, there’s nothing wrong with buying into the best of the best exploration plays while they’re beaten down.

    Remember, the Chinese are hoarding precious metal. Demand in the Middle Kingdom offers far surpassed gold mine production in the rest of the world. The only way for the global gold market to meet Chinese language demand is to sell stockpiles – the GLD stashes of the world.

    Sooner or later, the steering wheel will turn for precious metal. And when that happens, the markets will encounter a provide deficit unlike anything we’ve seen. When that deficit strikes, we should see gold prices increase upward. When that time arrives, it’ll be good to hold your favorite mining plays – they’re certainly inexpensive right now.

    Until next time. Thanks for studying.

    Byron King
    Contributing Writer, Money Morning

  • Big Ideas on Gold and Resources in the Big Easy

    Big Ideas on Gold and Resources in the Big Easy

    For nearly four decades, curious investors have made their way to the large Easy for a taste of New Orleans and many helpings of advice and viewpoint at the New Orleans Investment Meeting.

    In preparation for my presentations in Brand new Orleans as well as for the Metals & Minerals Expense Conference in San Francisco and the Mines and Money in London in a few days, I’ve been pulling together this kind of research that we can all put to use now.

    One contrarian idea these days is investing in resources. This is an unloved and underowned area of the market, but there is an instance to be made for owning goods.

    Consider the low expectations that analysts have on earnings growth with regard to cyclical industries. BCA Research looked at instances when the Institute for Provide Management (ISM) new orders index had been more than 60, and determined the average earnings growth in the subsequent 12 months. The chart exhibits the gap between past earnings performance and what analysts are looking forward to in the next 12 months.

    According to BCA, industries including energy and materials stand out ‘as having overly bearish anticipations compared with their historical overall performance patterns.


    Click to enlarge

    These analysts are bearish although the world is experiencing a good earth-shaking resurgence in manufacturing. In Oct, the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) grew for an incredible 29-month high, rising to 52.1 in October. Several above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, and if manufacturing is actually expanding, so should the economy.


    Click to enlarge

    If you look at the PMIs of individual countries, including the data coming out of the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, Brazil, and Australia, more than 90 percent are above 50.

    Historically, when an overwhelming most of countries see this level of production expansion, world-wide growth remains raised for an extended period of time. Since January 2005, there were two previous times when PMIs remained high: From 2005 until the Great Recession within 2008, and from January 2010 through the middle of Next year.


    Click to enlarge

    What’s exciting about this rebirth in global manufacturing is the relationship between growing strength in PMIs and higher returns from certain commodities, including copper, oil, as well as energy and supplies stocks.

    Based on 23 observations from January 1998 to December 2012, there is a high numerical probability that physical commodities and commodity stocks rise in the 3 months after the current PMI quantity rises above its 3-month moving average.


    Click to enlarge

    In addition, the Business for Economic Co-operation and Improvement (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator has been heading in a positive direction. This particular leading indicator provides early signals of turning points in business cycles, including economic activity. Historically, alloys performance has closely followed this leading indicator, so as developed markets improved, the S&G GSCI Industrial Metals Index increased.


    Click to enlarge

    Gold is certainly a contrarian buy these days, but the big tale that is affecting the supply associated with gold is how the physical metal continues to migrate eastern. According to Paolo Lostritto of National Bank, year-to-date net physical imports by The far east equate to approximately 50 percent of global mine supply.

    This is in addition to the reports from GFMS suggesting that China is the world’s biggest gold producer with an estimated 400-plus lots annually, or roughly 14 percent of global mine supply.

    As Profile Manager Ralph Aldis likes to say, the gold going into China won’capital t be coming back to the market. This journey is a one-way journey for gold.


    Click to enlarge

    However, Chinese interest in gold is only one ingredient within the very significant Love Industry. With the increasing gold transfer restrictions in India, the country’s leading position as the world’utes biggest buyer of gold is in jeopardy.

    For a firsthand viewpoint on what is really taking place using the demand for gold and to get a flavour for what’s going on, I’ll end up being traveling to India later this particular month. Stay tuned.

    Frank Holmes
    Contributing Editor, Money Morning

    Publisher’s Note: This is an edited version of an article that originally made an appearance here.

  • The Myth About Money, Credit and Gold

    The standard version of how money came to be goes like this: First, there was negotiate. (A handful of nails for a pint of ale!) Then, together came various forms of money. An evolutionary derby eventually crowned gold and silver as the supreme money.

    And finally, credit (or debt) was born. This is the pinnacle of man’s ascent from knuckle-dragging barterer to tie-wearing mortgage holder.

    It’utes a nice little story…except it’s completely wrong.

    Busting the ‘Founding Myth’ of Economics 

    Our regular account of monetary history is actually precisely backward,‘ writes David Graeber in Debt: The First 5,Thousand Years. ‘We did not begin with barter, discover money and then eventually develop credit systems. It happened precisely the other way around.

    Graeber’s book Debt came out in 2011. I didn’t pay much attention to it then. After all, who needs to study another book about debt? But Graeber is an original thinker and offers a perspective you’ve probably not really seen, since Graeber is not an economist. So he draws from unfamiliar wells on the topic of money and credit.

    David Graeber is an anthropologist. He’s studied the record associated with human civilisations. It’s nothing like the actual economists imagine it. Graeber quotes from numerous economic textbooks to show how economists perpetuate the mythic progression of barter, money and then credit.

     (My very own favourite, The Mystery of Banking through Murray Rothbard, also opens with the same story.) But anthropologists have long known that the historical evidence does not assistance this view. It’s just that economists seem to have ignored this.

    Graeber calls the barter-money-credit story ‘the beginning myth’ of economics. Instead, what truly happened first was credit score. In small villages and communities, trade happened on credit. Graeber presents a lot of evidence about this, which I’ll skip in the interest of space.

    I’ll simply say it is convincing. And when you think about it, it’s hard to picture it happening any other way. ‘It’utes not as if anyone actually strolled into the local pub,‘ Graeber creates, ‘plunked down a roofing nail and asked for a pint associated with beer.

    No. What happened was a person ran up a tabs. When the occasion permitted, a person settled the debt in some way – perhaps with a bag of fingernails or tobacco or a chicken. All across the village, there would be numerous such ‘tabs’ or even, essentially, credits (debts) for all kinds of goods and services. People settled these debts in broadly agreed-upon methods.

    The Real Truth

    To this day,‘ Graeber writes, ‘no one has been able to locate a area of the world where the ordinary mode of economic transaction between neighbors takes the form of ‘I’ll give you Twenty chickens for that cow.’

    When people resorted to barter, Graeber says, it was usually to conduct trade with strangers, or even with enemies. Negotiate is not even particularly ancient, but found more in modern times within societies familiar with the use of money but lacking actual currency or mintage.

    Elaborate barter systems often appear in the wake of the fall of national economies,‘ Graeber creates. Russia in the 1990s is an example, when rubles disappeared. And often a kind of currency will emerge instead of the old, such as cigarettes within POW camps and prisons. But all of these are cases when people were already familiar with one form of money and learned to make do without it.

    Not all economists overlooked the historical record associated with anthropology. Graeber gives a tip of the limit to one Alfred Mitchell-Innes (1864-1950). He was a Uk diplomat, economist and author.

    While serving in the Uk Embassy in Washington, DC, through 1908-1913, he wrote two essays concerning the origin of money and credit for The Banking Law Journal. (I’ve read these essays, which you’ll find online. The first is ‘What is Cash?’ and the second is ‘The loan Theory of Money’.)

    Mitchell-Innes laid out the fallacies in the popular story. He relied on numismatics and the commercial history of ancient and medieval societies. He showed how credit came first. The sanctity of financial debt spun the wheels associated with commerce. Coins (and money) came later.

    At this point,‘ Graeber writes of the time of Mitchell-Innes, ‘just about every aspect of the conventional story of the roots of money lay in rubble. Rarely has a historical concept been so absolutely and systematically refuted.‘ Yet the myth endured.

    Here, I am barely out of Chapter 2 in my summary of Debt. The book is actually 500-plus pages. I can’t do it justice here, but I’michael going to go to one conclusion that may alter how you think about cash. Graeber, though acknowledging that we can’t know definitely how money came into being, writes approvingly of one historical theory that says states created money to finance wars. As Graeber writes:

    Say the king wishes to support the standing army of 50,000 men. Under ancient or medieval conditions, feeding such a force was an enormous problem… On the other hand, if one simply hands out coins to soldiers and then needs that every family in the kingdom was obliged to pay one of those coins back to you [to pay taxes], one would, in one blow, turn one’utes entire national economy into a vast machine for the provisioning of soldiers, since now every family, so as to get their hands on the coins, must find some way to contribute to the actual general effort to provide soldiers with the things they want.

    Admittedly a ‘cartoon’ version, Graeber says that cash markets do spring up around ancient armies. The creation of a national financial debt, then, is essentially a battle debt. A central bank is merely the institutionalisation of the needs from the state and the interests associated with financiers to keep the whole device going.

    When Nixon took the US off the defacto standard in 1971, it was in part to help finance the war within Vietnam. (Think, too, about what this means for gold. It is no more ‘real money’ compared to ink-stained paper governments turn out. If this sounds like right, gold became money just because states once placed it and made it money and accepted it to settle financial obligations and taxes. Otherwise, it’s just another commodity.) The US financial debt made possible a huge military-industrial complex.

    The financial debt crisis was a direct result of the need to pay for bombs,‘ Graeber writes, ‘or, to be more precise, the vast military infrastructure necessary to deliver them.‘ Nixon ordered more than Four million tons of explosives dropped on Indochina. In a sense, the US military had been the only thing backing the US dollar – after that and now.

    The U.S. financial debt remains,‘ Graeber writes, ‘as it has been because 1790, a war debt.‘ It is a debt that cannot, and will not, ever be repaid. It is simply rolled over indefinitely, until the day arrives when something else supplants the US dollar.

    In the last chapter (‘The Beginning of Something…’) Graeber concludes that people live in a new financial age, ‘one that no-one completely understands.‘ It is an age of credit score. But unlike the credit associated with old – dependent on trust as well as honour – it is one according to military power and financial debt servitude. It is one held with each other by the threat of physical violence.

    How this latest phase ends – as government debts continue to pile up – is the great financial question of our times. Graeber’s book is a thoughtful (and well-written) addition to the actual discussion. I enjoyed this. It challenges long-cherished assumptions as well as makes you think – the mark of the good book!

    Chris Mayer
    Contributing Editor, Money Morning

  • The COMEX Gold Shortage

    The COMEX Gold Shortage

    ‘Remember, remember the fifth of The fall of.’

    Earlier this week, November Fifth, was Guy Fawkes Day in England, which commemorates when Guy Fawkes (who else?) tried to inflate Parliament in 1605. More on that in a moment, because right now that’utes the least of our worries!

    Today we have larger fish to fry….

    There’utes a stunning development in the world of precious metal buying and selling. In fact, there’s a huge gold shortage across conventional markets. This shortage may be a precursor for a cost melt-up. Let’s look at some charts.


    Click to enlarge

    What’s going on? What do these graphs mean?

    Above you’ll see ten years’ worth of visual data concerning gold trades on COMEX, which is a good exchange that offers warehouse services for clients who trade metals. That is, COMEX stores precious metal at designated sites, on behalf of its clients. When you read about ‘gold trading’, this is the gold that will get traded.

    Let’s back up for a moment. COMEX holds metal on deposit to settle futures contracts, in order to back-up buy/sell deals and to secure exchanges between parties. On occasion, gold gets withdrawn from COMEX warehouses. (Too many occasions in current months, as we’ll observe below.)

    As part of its ‘exchange’ service, COMEX problems daily reports that detail its stock of gold, silver, copper, platinum, palladium and more. That is, COMEX states exactly how much metal is stored in its industrial environments ., and how much metal is available for trades.

    In general, the idea behind daily COMEX reports is perfect for traders to know how much metal is there to support futures agreements. The data also give understanding of what large gold (along with other metal) owners are doing in terms of trades and settlements, also as how much metal has been drawn out for delivery. So far, so good.

    Take a look at the top chart where it shows the price of gold (in yellow) and also the ‘open interest’ in gold agreements (in dark blue) through 2003 to the present. This reflects more and more players getting into gold commodity during a decade-long price rise.

    The open interest designation reflects the number of choice and/or future contracts that are not closed out – thus leftover ‘open’. Note a general rise in open interest between 2003 and Next year, and the decline over the past 12 months. Makes sense, right?

    Now take a look at the second graph. It shows how much gold is represented by the open interest. That is, how much precious metal it would take to satisfy all the contracts out there, if people really demanded delivery.

    Back in 2011, the number was north of 60 million ounces, or about 1,700 tonnes (metric tons). Today, it’s just less than 39 zillion ounces, or about 1,100 tonnes. One way or another, it’s a lot of gold, to be certain.

    Then again, most traders just offer ‘paper gold’ and not the real thing. Many people trade gold for the dollar-side of the deal, not because they want to take delivery and hoard gold in their vaults, let alone bury it in a treasure chest in the back yard. Still, the graph shows how much gold is in play just via COMEX.

    Big Physical Gold Shortage Developing

    Now look at the bottom two graphs. Note the second in order to last graph. It displays an abrupt drop in ‘registered’ gold stocks over the past six months. That’s gold eligible for COMEX delivery. The graph distinctly shows quantities shrinking fast, to about 660,Thousand ounces – which is the point of drying up, certainly as compared with average levels over the past ten years approximately.

    Finally, take a look at that bottom graph. It reflects the number of ‘precious metal contract’ investors with a claim on each potential COMEX ounce. Looking back in order to 2003, COMEX data reflect between 10 and 20 possible ‘owners’ for each ounce, with an excursion as much as the 30-range in 2011.

    But look what occurred in the past few months. The number of ‘proprietors per ounce’ has spiked up to an unprecedented 55! In other words, in the event that fewer than 2% of COMEX gold agreement owners hold their jobs to expiration, and then ask for delivery, COMEX warehouses would be cleaned out. The other 98% of gold contract players would be left holding a clear bag.

    What does this mean? COMEX numbers clearly show a severe squeeze on physical gold. The gold that backs ‘trades’ is at an all-time low! The registered gold inventory is at crucial shortage, unprecedented since the times of $300 gold back in the early 2000s.

    Where’s the Gold?

    Meanwhile, the well-publicized, ongoing disgorgement through ETF plays, such as SPDR Precious metal Shares (GLD) is NOT going into stockroom inventories, certainly not at COMEX. Actually, the evidence is that this gold will refiners in Europe, and thence to China and other gold-buying locales. The actual GLD outflow is no longer available to Traditional western investors – not at current costs.

    Here’s a trend that is NOT your own friend.

    The gold is disappearing, and I strongly suspect that it won’t come back in our lifetimes. National wealth – in the form of gold – that required generations to accumulate is leaving our economy. It’s migrating east.

    Should we be worried? Well…it will only take a small change in ‘gold psychology’ for more and more Traditional western investors to figure out what’s happening. The smart ones will demand delivery of physical metal, and the sooner the better. Only then do we could see a price melt-up for gold unlike anything in modern history.

    What should you do? Should you own physical gold, smile and hang on. If you don’t own physical gold – or silver, platinum or palladium – acquire some.

    If you own mining shares, hang on too. We’re in a bottom stage of the past year’s share price melt-down. Long term, valuations will rise.

    Don’capital t Be Misled by the Laying Liars of the ‘News’

    Meanwhile, watch the news. You’ll observe and hear ‘big names’ in politics, economics, monetary policy, the actual mainstream media and big banks continue to bad-mouth gold. At root, they lie! They are lying liars! Oh, they lie such as dirty rugs! These lying honchos tend to be desperate not to let the news of a physical gold shortage become too well-known. They cannot afford – in almost any sense of the word – for large amounts of investors to understand how poor things are with gold inventories.

    This physical COMEX gold shortage could quickly change into a widespread run on precious metal. When more and more people figure out how risky is the situation with physical gold, the metal markets can come afire like Yellowstone Park, burning to the ground back in 1988.

    Back to Man Fawkes

    One last point, concerning the Fifth of November. Guy Fawkes had been one of the central players in the Uk ‘Gunpowder Plot’ of 1605. Fawkes was an British Catholic who joined a plot in order to assassinate King James I (of Bible-fame), and then restore a Catholic monarch to the Uk throne.

    Fawkes and his co-conspirators placed barrels of gunpowder beneath the House of Lords, intending to take out much of the British management in an explosion. However, someone tipped-off the king’s inner circle, and government bodies searched Westminster Palace during the early hours of Nov. 5, 1605.

    The constables discovered Fawkes guarding explosives. Fawkes was arrested, questioned and tortured until he broke as well as spilled the beans about his plot. Fawkes was sentenced to be hung, dragged behind the horse and cut into four pieces on Jan. 31, 1606 – speedy justice, back then – however jumped from the gallows rather than give their English captors the pleasure of torturing him to death.

    Today the actual name of Fawkes is synonymous with the actual Gunpowder Plot. In Britain, they commemorate Guy Fawkes Day by burning the man’s image in effigy as well as setting off spectacular fireworks.

    But when COMEX gold runs out, we’lmost all have bigger things to be worried about than plotters wanting to blow up the homes of Parliament. Beware, beware…

    That’s just about all for now. Thanks for reading.

    Byron King
    Contributing Editor, Money Morning