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Twenty years after the post–war normalisation of Vietnam–US ties, the two countries are increasingly close. This process has sped up with China’s moves in the South The far east Sea since 2014, although numerous issues still hold the connection back:  Vietnam wants the embargo upon weapons sales gone and the United States wants to see a noticable difference in human rights.

The issues that previously have stood in the way of closer bilaterals ties have largely been, for Vietnam, the legacies of war. These legacies and their effects upon the post–war era are most often seen through the zoom lens of what the Americans left out, including unexploded ordnance and Agent Orange.

The US–Vietnam Joint Vision Statement, launched as Communist Party of Vietnam Common Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong visited the Whitened House to meet with President Obama, states that: ‘The achievements within United States–Vietnam relations are possible thanks to constructive joint initiatives to rise above the past, conquer differences, and promote shared interests looking toward the future’.

Yet rarely is the war heritage understood in terms of religious persecution. However, the central highlands hill people who converted to Protestantism and assisted American forces remain a few of the poorest, most isolated and in Vietnam today.

The persecution of the ‘Montagnards’ – a catch–all term used by the French for hill tribe minority teams – has been in the news this year as groups of Gia Rai (a central Vietnam local group) have been sneaking into Cambodia’s Ratanakiri province and declaring refugee status due to religious persecution. Phnom Penh offers rebuffed them, leaving human legal rights and refugee groups outraged. Roughly 85 are.

Meanwhile, Hanoi is reducing back on repression as scarves with the United States once again grow and the Trans–Pacific Partnership is finally being fast–tracked in america Congress. A high profile Catholic blogger was released from prison recently, even though former political prisoner Cu Huy ‘ Vu has claimed that political criminals are collected as helpful bargaining chips by Hanoi.

Religious persecution within Vietnam is important to the United States. The persecution of Protestant hill tribes gets less attention than the locking up of politically engaged and informed bloggers, some of whom tend to be religious. In many cases, US missionaries converted these people and many later fought for US forces in main Vietnam. Like other Vietnamese, they are suffering even generations on. Nevertheless, this is not the first order of economic when the issue of higher ties versus less oppression comes up.

Though the term ‘Montagnard’ is generally utilized by western news, it is more often reserved for those in the northern mountains near the Chinese edge, while ‘Degar’ is more traditionally requested those in the remote central areas bordering Laos and Cambodia.

The Cham, a now mostly Muslim team who once had an empire that stretched through central and South Vietnam, fall into neither class. The same is true of the Hoa, ethnic Chinese with a long history in Vietnam who have also suffered at varied times post–1974. However, both the Dao and the Hmong, who migrated from China from the middle of the 19th century, as well as the Gia Rai, the central–dwelling indigenous group, belong to the same state–mandated appellations despite their varied backgrounds and significantly differing cultures.

The US government has been doing much good work, helped together by a vocal and well–organized diaspora, on religious oppression in Vietnam. Wikileaks has revealed details of All of us investigations into religious tolerance at a local level across northern Vietnam. The conclusion of these investigations was that freedom or lack of it at this degree was partly a product associated with distant directives from Hanoi but centred much more upon the goodwill of local officials; some hindered Christian ceremonies whilst one man used to attend them as a sign of good will.

However, the problems for those in the highlands go back to the 1950s, when the communists started land confiscation and relocation associated with ethnic minorities, along with focusing on Christian groups. The groups formed the United Front for the Liberation of Oppressed Races (FULRO) in 1958. With a common religious history, they later helped america in the deep jungles. Many groups were Protestant, Tin Lanh or even Catholic. Many other groups also assisted Vietnamese forces.

While many of the ethnic minority people – some 40,Thousand of whom fought for the United States – might have left Vietnam post–1975, there has been small concerted help for them since. Compare this with Laos, where Hmong will also be persecuted. General Vang Pao, the Hmong warlord that assisted in America’s ‘secret war’ in Laos and Cambodia, gained US citizenship and was commemorated at Arlington on his death a few years ago. There’s a small but concerted team in the US campaigning for Hmong rights within Laos, but the same issue rarely comes up in any public or meaningful way in US–Vietnam dialogues.

Today many of these group peoples remain poor, isolated, and often have their lands confiscated. Travel to parts of Vietnam’s central highlands is still forbidden, making it hard to even verify human rights abuses. As much as Catholics in northern central Nghe An province nevertheless suffer setbacks generations on – for instance, a poor family report may prevent a person from acquiring better work or training – so too do groups who have had passing alliances with either FULRO or the United States. The United States knows this, however a lack of accessibility means verification is harder and it is simpler to argue for bloggers.

The wedding anniversary of normalised ties and Common Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s visit to the US may once again bring up human rights and the legacies of war but it is unlikely that the minority groups affected by this particular, unfortunate intersection of the two will see much progress.

Minorities forgotten as Vietnam–US ties improve is republished along with permission from East Asia Forum

There are strong hints that the South Africa government will raise the value-added tax (VAT) rate rather than improve income tax rates following the release of a good interim report on VAT with a committee led by a good eminent judge.

The reason an increase in the VAT rate is becoming contemplated is that the government desires more money to cover its ever-increasing expenditure. Well, that is not new. A lot more than 100 years ago, Adolph Wagner predicted that this would always be the case. This view has become known as Wagner’utes Law. The question thus gets, once again, how to raise this extra income.

The South African federal government should weigh its choice carefully. It has been understood forever of time that indirect taxes fall most heavily on those who are unable to bear this extra burden. Any increase in VAT will fall heaviest on the poor and middle class. Poor people cannot even afford food, the middle class barely generate enough to pay income tax, and they will be paying double tax.

Understanding the actual canons of taxation

Decisions about tax shouldn’t be made by looking solely at the present. The past should also be looked at. The further back one looks the clearer the present problem becomes and hence so does the solution.

For several centuries, there have been two forms of taxes, which Steve Stuart Mill in 1848 called indirect and direct taxes. Today these are tax and VAT – the Two Ugly Sisters of taxation.

The question is which to increase? The answer is not as difficult as it may appear at a first sight if David Ricardo’s factual observation is actually recalled that taxes fall on either income or capital, in other words savings.

If income taxes fall on savings, the tax system will not survive too long, ending as soon as cost savings have been exhausted, and with that ending the economy. Taxes are only able to fall on income. All forms of taxation are therefore forms of income tax, all attempting to draw out some part of the taxpayers' income utilizing different mechanisms.

The point of leaving is to understand the fundamental concepts on which tax is to be accessed, as applied to taxing earnings. These principles were set out a long time ago by Adam Smith because the canons of taxation. Later they were more clearly explained through Mill.

Oddly, it was only lately that Smith’s first cannon was restated in modern sales terms. The fundamental basis of tax is simple and if imposed in terms of the rule of law needs a single law applicable to all taxpayers. This is what Smith’s first canon achieves. The cost of the necessities of life is subtracted in the taxpayer’s gross income to arrive at taxed income.

Tax is imposed on the taxable income. This fundamental principle was applied from the introduction of income tax in 1799 in Britain until the Peoples’ Budget in early 1900s when the marginal tax system was introduced. The marginal tax system opened up the way for a class battle since tax could after that be differentiated.

The introduction of revenue Tax in 1799 introduced an immediate tax on all earnings. This should have meant that all other forms of taxation become redundant since all income was taxed. Their continued existence came to double taxation. Theoretically indirect taxes, or usage taxes as they were after that called at the time, should have been abolished. However, they were not.

The poor should not be taxed

At current levels, all those who earn less than the amount needed to cover the necessities of life, which in 2006 I estimated to be R120,000 per year for a single person, ought to be exempt from all taxes. The reason behind this is given by Jeremy Bentham and cited with approval by Mill.

The mode of adjusting these inequalities of pressure, which seems to be the most equitable, is that suggested by Bentham, of leaving a certain minimum of income, sufficient to maintain the necessities-of-life, untaxed.

There should thus not be any VAT on the bad at all. The only rationale for the existence of VAT would be that everybody should bear some of the burden of taxation but in this case, VAT should not be a significant income source. To the extent that VAT exists, it is to fulfil the purpose of being the tax of the poor.

If, for example, someone earns the minimum R120,000 a year and VAT is actually levied at 10%, that person would pay R12,000 per annum. That person then does not earn enough to cover the necessities of existence. The VAT is paid in the expense of purchasing food, clothes, and shelter.

Income tax should then start at R120,000 per year at the same rate of 10%. Therefore, a person who makes, say R150,000 a year, would pay the same R12,000 via the VAT system and an additional R300 in income tax – a total of R12,300 per annum.

In all probability that individual would be paying R15 000 within VAT and R300 in income tax, producing a total of R15,Three hundred. The additional R3000 is the double taxation paid by the middle class due to VAT.

The tax burden around the lower income earners because of VAT is actually infinite. Tax burden may be the ratio of tax compensated to the taxable income. Since, in this case, the taxable earnings are zero the ratio is infinite, the tax load is infinite.

The Davis Committee Report raises equity considerations associated with VAT and concludes, “Tax is broadly neutral”. This view is easily dismissed as it continues to be throughout history where it’s always been understood the burden of indirect taxes falls more heavily on smaller than larger incomes.

To avoid the type of misunderstandings set out in the report, a brief history of taxation is important. The mistake of the statement is easily demonstrated. The tax burden is the ratio of tax paid to taxable income. Within the example above the tax load of the person earning R150,000 is clearly heavier when Tax is part of the equation.

Dire consequences

There is a very good chance that if VAT is actually increased, civil unrest will bust out as happened in Zimbabwe whenever VAT was increased to pay for the War Veterans Retirement benefits. For Zimbabwe, it was downhill from there onwards.

The tax burden cannot continue to rise indefinitely because indicated by Wagner. The time must arrive where government expenditure is actually reduced in preference to increasing income taxes. Now is the time to understand this and react accordingly.

Failing this, South Africa will be in the same position Portugal was just before the French Trend. The peasants were paying 80% of their income in tax and just before the revolution, the government of the day was considering ways to boost the tax burden even more. The federal government just did not get it.

South The african continent needs to raise taxes: why a VAT increase would be a bad idea is republished along with permission from The Conversation

The new Conservative government is actually letting slip its commitments to renewable energy and global warming mitigation. The bad decisions continue to come, and do not add up to a policy strategy consistent with the UK’s emissions and efficiency targets, and more generally with fighting climate change.

Last 7 days, the government announced it would scrap the zero carbon houses target for 2016. The target was announced a long time in advance (in 2006), and nine many years of industry commitment could now be lost. This is a huge setback in the path to a low carbon UK, and undermines the trustworthiness of government energy and environment policy.

This follows the abolition of the Energy Efficiency Deployment Workplace immediately after the May elections. Work was seen as a potential game-changer simply three years ago, and this transfer could reduce energy effectiveness to the secondary and minor role it played in yesteryear.

Power down

Sadly, other recent decisions additionally throw into question the Conservative government’s green qualifications. In June this year, it declared new onshore wind farms would be excluded from a subsidy plan from April 2016, a year earlier compared to expected. Amber Rudd, the Assistant of State for Energy and Climate Change, stated at the time that there were “enough subsidised [onshore wind] tasks in the pipeline to meet the renewable energy commitments”. She claimed financial assistance would be shifted to technologies that needed them more, even though she did not specify which technologies those might be.

The announcement dashed hopes that Rudd’s visit might signal a serious, smart approach to reducing carbon pollutants. Critics said the move could put thousands of jobs at risk and makes it even less likely that the UK might meet its renewable energy focuses on for 2020 and beyond, for which Carbon Brief suggests the country is already behind schedule.

Shale we dance?

In contrast, fracking received huge tax breaks from the previous (coalition) government, with David Cameron declaring they were “going all out for shale”, even as environmental groups suggested it might make it impossible for the UK to meet emission reduction targets.

The momentum is not slowing: the actual 2015 summer budget makes it pay off the newly elected government really wants to move faster on “sweeteners” to appeal to, or appease, affected residents by bringing forward proposals for a sovereign wealth account for communities that web host shale gas development. What’s more, drilling restrictions are being reduced to the extent that essential wildlife habitats are now reasonable game.

Looking back at the 2015 Traditional Party manifesto, we find the phrases “climate change” and “worldwide warming” appear only five times between them (compare 27 instances of the word “immigration”). There is a declaration of intention to act on climate change, to push for a strong global offer, and support for the Global warming Act, but the language is vague, without specific systems or proposed policies.

However, the actual manifesto headlines the government’s intention to halt the spread associated with onshore wind. Rudd referred to this in her first appearance as Secretary of State before her departmental Select Committee , arguing that the end to wind energy subsidies didn’t come as a surprise to the industry. She further stated she is happier with carbon decrease commitments than renewables commitments. This particular brings to mind her recent call to make nuclear power stations more “beautiful” to win over public support.

The government’s rhetoric around renewables focuses on the costs in order to consumers, raising fears of more premature subsidy cuts. Meanwhile, gas and oil are highlighted as an answer to energy security, no matter what the costs. Given this unfavourable policy environment, and considering that the statutory Global warming Committee’s latest report flagged coverage uncertainty as the key danger to meeting our co2 commitments, we should worry if and how the UK will meet these commitments, which build up to the 2050 target of decreasing emissions by 80% compared to a 1990 baseline.

Meanwhile, analysis by the Green Alliance suggests that behind the predicted 3.3% reduction in spending across government by 2020 there lurk much bigger reductions in certain areas. Looking at the Department for Energy and Climate Change, as well as allowing ring fencing to cover capital expenditures and debts associated with coal and nuclear, this could actually translate to the 90% reduction in its staff budget by 2018-19.

In practice, such a decrease in staffing at the department might not mean much in the near-term, given how vague the Tory manifesto was about climate change. However, in a long time to come, even if this government (or even the next one) wanted to firm up on energy and climate policy, they simply would not have enough qualified staff to do so – correcting that shortage would not occur overnight.

While the merits of person policy decisions can be contended, a wider trend is actually emerging. The government strategy appears anti-renewables and anti-energy efficiency, while simultaneously boosting oil and gas exploration (such as fracking). It all seems alarmingly from odds with fighting climate change; perhaps the Tories really are “getting rid of the green crap”.

This is a populist, short-term focused technique, which in the longer operate could hurt energy policy goals on energy effectiveness, energy security and household energy bills. It will make the UK’s emission reduction focuses on much harder to meet, and risks undermining the country’s standing worldwide in the run-up to the next UN climate change conference, due to be held in Paris in December.

Shortsighted Tory power policies could undo years of effort is republished with authorization from The Conversation

China has amassed one of the biggest pools of capital.  It was in the form of central bank reserves.  At its peak, it had been around $4 trillion.  The make up of these reserves is a closely guarded secret. However, when the yuan is going to be including the IMF's SDR, it’s anticipated that China statement will have to report the currency allocation of its reserves.  China would not necessarily publish these though IMF would include them in its aggregations process that it publishes every quarter.

China's reserves dropped $300 bln more than four consecutive quarters through the middle of the year.  In Q2 2015, reserves fall $40 bln.  Stemming from its trade surplus and investment income, direct investment flows, economists expect reserves to have increased rather than fall.

The gap in between what the economists’ models say that reserves should be, and what the PBOC reviews them has become the proxy for capital flight.  As the models differ, the estimate of the capital flight differs.  One large investment bank estimates it at $800 bln.  Another one claims $520 bln.

Many observers take it another step.  On the assumption that the bulk of China's reserves are invested in Treasuries, a decline in reserves is a decline in Treasury holdings.  The most authoritative source comes from the US Treasury.  This is depicted in this Great Graphic from Bloomberg.  This shows that as of the end of May, China held $1.27 billion of US Treasuries.  It is unchanged ($2 bln more) than it held when its reserves peaked last 06.

The PBOC may hold Agency bonds as part of their reserve holdings, not only Treasuries.  In the first five several weeks of this year, China's Agency holdings rose by $14.5 bln.  By the US reckoning, China's Treasury holdings rose by $26 bln in the Jan-May period.

Some claim that China is disguising its flows.  They reason that this was done on Euroclear in Belgium.  There had been a six-month period in late 2013 and into early 2014 that US data showed a large accumulation associated with Treasuries in Belgium.  They rose from $173 bln in September The year 2013 to $381 bln in March 2014.  At first, some thought this was Spain shifting its reserves, however it relates to Euroclear's exchange function, likely collateral.

Since Belgium's holdings of US Treasuries has fallen, particularly over in the Feb-May period. This is shown here in this 2nd Great Graphic. The US Treasury data shows Belgium's Treasury holdings fell from $354.5 bln in The month of january to $203bln as of May.  There isn’t any compelling reason to think it was China.   What is its motive?  A big run up and then a big run down in short order does not fit China's modus operandi. 

Perhaps the data is flawed.  The US Treasury data only aggregates information of activity through US institutions.  Maybe China has been selling its Treasury holdings around the sly.  If there were such a large seller of US Treasuries because the capital flight story implies surely the markets might show it.  Where is this?  Assuming that China's reserves tend to be kept invested in the belly of the curve, let us look at what has happened to 5-year and 7-year US produces. The former has risen by 5 bp since China's reserves peaked.  The latter has fallen 7 bp.  The actual dollar-yuan rate is unchanged from the finish of last June.

It isn’t clear why the The far east would sell Treasuries now.  The actual Fed is preparing the market for a rate hike.  While this may weigh on Treasury prices, being an investor that may hold till maturity, not a trader, the change in prices is of little significance.  The yield is locked.  The key towards the total return is the buck, and Chinese officials are well aware of the divergence of monetary coverage. 

Maybe the US market is so heavy and liquid that it offers easily absorbed the Treasury and dollar sales. Could additional markets have absorbed the hundreds of billions of dollars that economists' models suggest have left China?  The European stock and bond markets are obvious places to look.  A surge of Chinese cash does not appear to be evident. 

Chinese economic data is not often thought to be of high quality.  The methodology it utilizes does not appear to be very transparent.  It is not clear the independence of its statistical collection and reporting.  This, incidentally, is one of the creditors' needs that Greece has recognized.  

It does appear that there happen to be capital outflows from China.   Many are likely exaggerating it. It may stem from incomplete data.  It may also be a function of not understanding current data.  For example, China's industry surplus is often treated like a source of capital inflows.  However, what is reported is merchandise industry.  China records a service deficit that offsets part of the merchandise excess.  China's reserves are not just about all sitting idle.  Some have been loaned out to other parts of the government, like the Export-Import Bank, for example.  What is the accounting practice China uses for this? 

Since its foreign currency reserves are so large, value, that is changes in asset prices and currencies (since the reserves are reported in $ $ $ $) are an important part of a rigorous evaluation. What is the accounting practice with this?  Economists who estimate the actual composition of China's reserves then estimate the valuation changes.  For example, using round figures to illustrate the point, assume China has $4 trillion in supplies, of which 25% or $1 trillion have been in euro investments.  Since the finish of H1 14, the dinar has lost 20% against the buck.  Holding all equal, that of course it is not, that on your own would account for a $200 bln decrease in the dollar value of China's reserves.

Great Graphic: China's Keeping of Treasuries is republished with permission from Marc to Market

The government of the state of Lagos – Nigeria’s former capital – offers proudly proclaimed it is creating a new city that will become the new financial centre associated with Nigeria, and perhaps West Africa. The size of the Eko Atlantic project is actually immense and progress arrives through a team effort between investors, planners, engineers, and contractors.

Pitched as Africa’s answer to Dubai, Eko Atlantic is a multibillion-dollar residential and business development that is located as an appendage to Victoria Island, as well as along the renowned Bar Beach shoreline in Lagos. The plan is it will:

* Consist of ten square kilometres (3.86 sq . miles) of land gotten back from the Atlantic Ocean

* Be the place to find quarter of a million individuals and employ a further 150,000 people who will commute upon daily basis

* Be billed like a 24-hour, green-conscious, world-class city

* Attract and retain top multinational corporations.

There is no shortage of doubters and critics from the initiative, which is an exercise in runaway neoliberalism by a country that can’t even ensure 30 days associated with continuous power supply to its citizens. The truth, however, is that Lagos warrants its dream Eldorado and the financial case for Eko Atlantic is sound.

The only problem is that the plans are in fact not radical enough. Our argument is this fact project is under-imagined and should urgently shore up to match additional international projects in the fast-developing nations. In particular, we believe in the development of a city along the lines of Paul Romer’s charter city. The city, not really the state, provincial, regional, or national laws, would define the governing system.

This would mean that Eko Ocean city would operate under high standards of transparency and good governance. Impartial policing standards would manage its security. This could include other aspects of its civil and criminal justice methods. Its sanitary, health, energy supplies, environment and other regulatory rules should peg with comparable standards in London, New York, Paris, Dubai, and Shanghai.

This would ensure that the laws under which the territory operates are, in essence, free of stifling national regulation, which has was in the way of most African metropolitan areas operating at optimal amounts.

A Model for Good Governance

Now, all aspects of the planning and building of the Eko Atlantic city are squarely in the hands of the private sector involving each local and foreign venture capitalists. Those already on board consist of local and international banks – First Bank, FCMB, Access Financial institution Plc. and GT Bank in Nigeria, BNP Paribas Fortis, and KBC Bank – as well as a growing number of private investors.

The recent inauguration of the new governor for Lagos, West Africa’utes mega-city with close to 18 zillion residents, presents a further opportunity to rejig plans and boldly move towards chartered city status.

Rather than just becoming a financial venture, the actual Eko Atlantic experiment can carry further at no extra cost to become the centre to transform good governance in Nigeria and West Africa. Already Lagos is the gold standard for other areas of the Nigerian federation. In 2012, it produced annual revenue of about US$1 billion, dwarfing that of the other 35 federating areas of Nigeria.

If world experts in the lawful economic and industrial fields competently handle Eko Atlantic town, returns to Lagos economy can certainly double.

Bad systems and rules are the reason most Africa cities do not attract much-needed worldwide investment at appropriate levels. Bad rules have tied down the development of Lagos along with 1000 other African cities since their independence from colonialism. These include corruption, mismanagement, political interference, unresponsiveness, overbearing religiosity, nepotism, human legal rights abuses, and incompetent existence of the state.

Presently, the judiciary, health, as well as administrative systems of most Nigerian metropolitan areas have severe problems. Lagos isn’t any different even though it is still much ahead of the other 34 states and federal capital areas. Eko Atlantic ought, therefore, to provide a petri dish to run a very brand new kind of African city.

Constellation associated with Nigerian politics aligns

Lagos will have to work with the us government to be able to create a special area of reform. The arrangements will require further delegation of manage to Lagos state, which will in turn give up powers to the regulating authorities of the chartered Eko Atlantic town.

Such arrangements and concessions should be easier now, as the constellations have aligned for the first time in Nigerian history. The same government and party that rule the country now run the Lagos state. This particular arrangement will allow Lagos to make guarantees that are more credible to investors across the world.

There will be a mutual benefit of exchange in favour of investors, employers, residents, the state and the country. In a depressed worldwide economy, such a city would attract the qualified, the actual brave, and the adventurous from the entire globe.

African countries sorely require a skilled workforce from the planet to fill hi-tech employment and service industries that will fuel development in the 21st century.

There are successful comparable projects across the third world. The Chinese government, seeing the tremendous success that various rules made of Hong Kong, wisely created special zones offering taxes and tariff incentives.

There is the phenomenon of medical cities that are scattered in many parts of Saudi Arabia. Dubai is a beacon associated with success and Abu Dhabi is already carefully following these examples using its bold creation of the Abu Dhabi Global Market established on Al Maryah Island.

This is the latest U . s . Arab Emirate creation of a financial totally free zone based on a separate legal system. Honduras is also currently involved in the creation of such high quality, liveable cities.

It Could be Done

It is certain that the proposed modifications will generate controversy. Nationalist emotions against this proposal may run high. However, this problem is not impossible.

Former US President Ronald Reagan permitted himself the luxury of only 1 decorative plaque on his desk in the Oval Office as president. It read:

It can be done.

The current governor of Lagos, Akinwunmi Ambode, is going to do himself and nearly everyone a lot of good if he will get himself a similar plaque to remind him of the chance the Eko Atlantic City represents in his hands.

Why Nigeria’s plans for a dream Eldorado city are not radical enough is republished with permission from The Conversation

The economic progress of The far east over the past 40 years or so continues to be remarkable. Part of that achievement has been due to the role the state has played in creating a stable, long run environment with regard to business to grow and prosper, able to take advantage of the globalisation of economic activity.

The Chinese government just seen confirmation that it is much harder to marshal the competing forces in financial markets.

Simply put, the sector suffers from ineffectiveness and distortions built in to its current structure. The stock market – which has suffered such a jolt in recent weeks – is a relatively small part of the picture. Banks are still the predominant source of finance and can act as policy systems to fund the state’s favoured projects.

Restrictions on the official banking sector, meanwhile, have resulted in a rise of an unregulated shadow banking system. There continues to be limited access to household finance and a lack of short as well as longer-term corporate debt markets. Add to this mix the absence of full funds account convertibility, which would allow limit-free transformation of yuan holdings into foreign currency for investment. The continued restrictions might offer some defense against events such as the global financial crisis, however they still isolate China from financial globalisation.

Taking stock

The Chinese stock market provides a good example of how markets can deviate significantly from logical valuation. If we go back 10 years, we see an overheated marketplace between 2005 and 2007. After the bubble burst, the market drifted as Chinese investors appeared to real estate as a way of creating good investment returns – and indeed, it was a highly successful strategy. The 150% rise in the Shanghai stock index during 2014-2015, which beat the recent collapse, was a result of the cooling of the real estate market and consequent re-emergence of reveal buying, assisted by an increase in lending.

Now, investors are looking to sell stock as the market tumbles, using the losses experienced in 2007 at the forefront of their attention. So two bubbles and, in between, an industry in the doldrums is the experience that investors are making their choices. Participants in the Chinese stock exchange are used to volatility and degree of prices, which in no way reflect the true value of the shares they hold. Short-term profit taking and loss-minimisation is the focus for buying and selling activity.

Value judgments

This may be the environment into which China’s policymakers have stepped in recent weeks. They have discovered, as King Canute attempted to show his obsequious courtiers, that the sea wouldn’t obey. It should be clear which trying to influence the surf of selling created by highly disturbed financial markets is a task beyond even the most powerful.

Chinese investors reacted to various policy measures and exhortations with further unloading of stocks and even the injection of huge support has only served to depart traders skittish and susceptible to rumour.

Rational investors regard buying stocks now as highly risky given the sentiment of small investors and the desire to profit from some profits while they still exist. Yet, why would policymakers expect anything less once the market, for a long time, has been driven by anything but a logical assessment of the long-term value of holding stocks.

There have been some tries to explain what has happened. One strategy has been to blame professional fund managers who are using the recently introduced capability to short-sell – essentially wagering on stocks to fall. However, in truth, fund supervisors have followed policy strictures not to abuse this new marketplace mechanism – and my connections in China have said there has been little evidence of the use of short selling since presenting the measure. Another approach has been to blame foreign traders, but again this lacks credibility given the small amount of such investment allowed and the strict regulates on it.

The past few weeks have taught policymakers that they can produce as well as reduce volatility. By intervening, cajoling and blaming worldwide investors and fund managers, the rational element of markets have priced in additional risks. In other words, the market is betting that if policies to stabilise the market eventually fail, then the result will be more draconian measures, which will have negative consequences for the markets and financial institutions.

In addition, they are right to do so. 1 response from policymakers had been the introduction of restrictions to stop major investors selling stocks altogether. That does appear to have prevented market meltdown for now, the main problem with returning to this solution is that the state is not responsible for what happens once allowing buying and selling again, or crucially, exactly how such intervention affects the longer-term view of investors.

Norse play

Policy makers in China, as they have done formerly, will learn from the experience. They might think they understood what has driven economic development, however doing the same for the financial markets is a much more difficult task. It has been an awareness of this, coupled with fear of exposing the economy to unshackled markets, which has delayed liberalisation efforts. It will be a pity if recent events encourage policy-makers in order to postpone reforms necessary to provide China’s financial system into the 21st Century, to join the country’s real economy.

China’s recent role-play like a beach-bound Norse king should push policy-makers to produce financial markets that take the lengthy view. The key is to encourage investors to build portfolios that deliver long-run risk management, rather than investment portfolios, which attempt to second-guess how Beijing will next interfere. What this means is some serious institution building and financial market reforms. It will not exempt China through volatile financial markets and short-term decision-making but it would deliver a more foreseeable environment that allows angry small investors to take less risky positions to avoid the vagaries of short-term financial market behaviour.

Choice and freedom to make mistakes is as important in financial markets as it is in any part of the economy; China should recall that even Canute obtained his feet wet ultimately. The difference is that he knew he would.

China’s attempt to control hot markets only fans the flames is republished with permission from The Conversation

At a time of slowing economic development and massive corporate debts, the deflationary spiral would be China’s worst nightmare. In addition, the risk is actually mounting. The producer price index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 39 consecutive several weeks, since February 2012.

The development of China’s consumer price index (CPI), though still positive, has also been falling steadily, from 6.5 percent in July 2011 to 1.2 percent within May 2015. If experience is actually any indication, China’s CPI will turn negative very soon.

In China’s last protracted bout of deflation, from 98 to 2002, persistent diminishes in prices were the result of monetary and fiscal tightening that began in Michael went bonkers, compounded by the lack of exit mechanisms for failed enterprises. After peaking at 24 percent in 1994, inflation started to decline in 1995. Nevertheless, GDP growth soon began deteriorating rapidly. In an effort to revive growth in a difficult global environment and buffer exports against the effect of the Asian financial crisis, the Chinese government loosened monetary as well as fiscal policy beginning in The fall of 1997.

However, it was too little, too late. By 1998, when CPI inflation began to fall, producer costs had already been declining for eight months, and remained negative for a total of 51 months, with CPI growth beginning to recover after 39 months.

An obvious lesson would be that the government should have switched to loosening earlier, and more powerfully. However, this experience also underscores the impotence of economic policy in a deflationary environment, owing to the unwillingness of banks to lend and of businesses to borrow. The fact that loss-making enterprises had been allowed to churn out cheap products, eroding the profitability associated with high-quality enterprises (and thus their incentive to invest), prolonged the deflation.

Nonetheless, The far east eventually managed to rid itself of deflation and return to rapid economic growth. For starters, a decline in investment throughout the deflationary period — together with firm closures, mergers, as well as acquisitions — reduced overcapacity, clearing the way in which for investment to rebound strongly in 2002. At the same time, expansionary fiscal policy increased effective demand, while the government, supported by its strong public-finance placement, was able to tackle nonperforming loans successfully, thereby increasing commercial banks’ willingness to lend, and firms’ ability to borrow.

Moreover, housing market reforms and the development of a mortgage-loan market within the late 1990s fuelled rapid growth in real estate investment, which arrived at an annual rate of over 20 percent in 2000. As a result, real estate development became the most important contributor to economic growth, even as exports boomed following China’s accession to the WTO.

The trouble with the emergence of these new growth engines is that it enabled China’s leaders to delay important structural reforms. As a result, The far east now faces many of the same challenges it faced in the late 1990s — beginning with overcapacity.

After 15 years of rapid growth in real estate development, this is not surprising. But that doesn’t make it any less risky. Actually, allowing overcapacity to continue putting downward pressure on prices, China’s economic growth will not secure at a rate consistent with its potential. Instead, the economy will end up in a vicious spiral of debt deflation.

At this point, the government bodies could eliminate overcapacity through firm closures, mergers and acquisitions, and other architectural measures. They could also aim to eliminate excess capacity by utilizing expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate effective need. In theory, the long-term solution would be to pursue structural adjustments that will improve the allocation of sources. However, that would be painful and slow. Striking a balance between your short- and long-term approaches will end up being a major challenge for China’s leadership.

Complicating this effort is the fact that, unlike in 1997–2002, China can’t absorb overcapacity by stimulating real estate investment and exports. And no one understands whether the much-discussed ‘innovative industries’ can have the impact that real estate investment and exports do — not least because there is so much extra capacity in the traditional industries.

China must do whatever it takes to avoid falling into the debt-deflation trap. Fortunately, China still has room to invest in growth-enhancing facilities and innovative industries. Policies to expand social security and improve the provision of community goods could support these efforts, boosting domestic consumption by allowing households to reduce their preventive savings.

Nevertheless, at the same time China’s leadership must continue to pursue it’s agenda of structural change and adjustment, even if it might have an adverse impact on development in the short run. China simply cannot afford to continue to kick the actual reform can down the road.

Mark Twain once purportedly said, ‘History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme’. China should brace by itself for a period of deflation, which may be even more protracted than the last one. However, with the right approach — and a bit of best of luck — China can make sure that, this time around, it recovers more self-sufficiently than in the past.

Can China beat deflation? is actually republished with permission from Eastern Asia Forum