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  • Barrick Gold Corp chairman John Thornton looks to future acquisitions as company comes out of ‘intensive care’

    Barrick Gold Corp chairman John Thornton looks to future acquisitions as company comes out of ‘intensive care’

    Barrick Gold chairman John Thornton's stated goal is to make Barrick one of the best companies in the world this century, in any industry, which means starting to think about acquisitions.

    John Thornton looks on Barrick Gold Corp. like a patient finally ready for discharge from hospital and going to abandon the fast living that landed it there.

    Barrick Gold Corp has returned on top as Canada’s best-performing stock and also the world’s most valuable gold company

    HO/AFP/Getty Images

    Barrick Gold Corp. has surged to become Canada’s best-performing stock like a two-month rally in the precious metal gives added lift towards the company’s turnaround efforts.

    Continue reading.

    In his first on-the-record interview in several months, the executive chairman of the world’s largest gold producer discussed all of the hot-button issues – from his perspectives on acquisitions and disposals towards the sprawl of his board to his own controversial pay packet.

    Criticized for lacking industry experience, the 62-year-old banker-turned-miner could be forgiven if he made a decision to gloat: on his watch Barrick has transformed from market casualty to darling, culminating with a peer-beating 82 percent stock surge this season. A big-picture guy, he speaks in entire paragraphs from the mile above ground where the way forward is clear: it’s time for Barrick to get off the defensive, albeit cautiously.

    “When you’re coming out of intensive care, both for the great of your health and for purpose of reputation, it’s extremely important to be clear and transparent about what you’re doing,” he explained in Ny on Wednesday. “All of those things argue for going slowly.”

    Deal Discipline

    Thornton’s stated goal would be to make Barrick one of the best companies on the planet this century, in any industry, which means beginning to consider acquisitions. Senior executives have been running through deal scenarios to “exercise the muscles.”

    To be sure, the organization is “nowhere close” to an acquisition despite the fact there aren’t any shortage of opportunities amid what had, up to now, been a four-year downturn for gold. “The very first thing we do absolutely should be successful,” Thornton said.

    What the company can’t afford is yet another fiasco. In 2011, Barrick expanded its copper footprint with the $7.3-billion acquisition of Equinox Minerals Ltd., swelling its debt as high as US$15.8 billion in 2013. The deal was the single biggest factor that led to a long and painful restructuring. In September, Barrick said hello would close the unit.

    Since 2013, Barrick has cut assets, jobs and costs and adopted a decentralized model more similar to a tech firm than a miner. Debts are right down to US$10 billion and also the clients are looking to halve that within the medium term. Asked if he’d consider expanding beyond gold when the company opens its wallet, Thornton said now you ask , “in almost any meaningful time period academic: the answer is no.”

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  • Northair and Kootenay Combining to Create Mexican Silver Consolidator

    Northair and Kootenay Combining to Create Mexican Silver Consolidator

    Drilling for silver at La Cigarra, Mexico

    Northair and Kootenay Combining to Create Mexican Silver Consolidator

    Northair Silver Corp (TSXV.INM) has a NI43-101 compliant silver resource at its La Cigarra project in Chihuaua State, Mexico; only 20 kilometers from two large producing mines which have been mining silver for hundreds of years. The organization also has 2 million dollars in its treasury and it is President & CEO, Andrea Zaradic is confident that La Cigarra will “be a mine one day”.

    So how come a combination with Kootenay Silver Inc. (TSXV.KTN)  another Mexican silver explorer with two promising silver assets in Sonora State, seem sensible at this time in the market cycle?

    Zaradic, a mechanical engineer by training, took over as CEO of Northair in 2014 but she has had her eye around the company for much longer. “In 2012, as i was the CEO of a company called Troon Ventures Ltd., which was a cashed up shell, looking to acquire mining assets, I traveled to the Parral Mining District in Mexico to go to Northair’s La Cigarra silver project.  It quickly became apparent that this was a good thing with substantial merits and really separated itself.”

    Shortly thereafter, Zaradic led Troon Ventures right into a successful merger with Grenville Strategic Royalty Corp (TSXV: GRC) where she currently serves as an independent director.  Now free of her Troon CEO duties, she was able to transition into Northair once the very long time CEO decided to retire in 2014. “I was very looking forward to the opportunity at Northair and the potential to make further discoveries at La Cigarra.  Soon after registering with work with the organization, a window opened out to complete a financing and that we managed raise $4 million dollars. These new funds allowed Northair to update the mineral resource estimate in January 2015 increasing the tons and grade of the deposit, develop a metallurgical program which we reported in June 2015 in addition to conducting an airborne geophysics program, which identified several new exploration targets around the property.  In addition to having a great project, Northair is based on the neighborhood community which is considered a mining friendly jurisdiction and home to people who’ve been mining all their lives.”

    But there was a problem. Silver prices had been steadily declining with them the Northair share price. “We were a little distraught due to the silver price. We had to take serious steps due to the market. We cut our overhead, our staff, our G&A. That has left us two million dollars in our treasury.”

    Zaradic is really a deal maker. She set the wheels moving for the reverse takeover of Troon, and she was instrumental in the merger of Magma Energy & Plutonic Power (now Alterra Power). She is also something of a student of economic history.

    “Silver consolidation works.” she said. “Silver Standard, First Majestic and Pan American are caused by silver consolidation once the cost of silver was depressed in the early 2000’s. Pan American went from $2.50 a be part of 2000 to $41.00 per share in 2008, First Majestic went from $.05 to $23 and Silver Standard went from $1.25 to 37 dollars all for the reason that same period.”

    With metal prices low, Zaradic believes that what went down from 2000 to 2008 could happen again in gold and silver. “We see First Mining Finance (TSXV: FF) within the gold sector buying gold assets, climbing to a market cap of +$100 million in an exceedingly short time. The marketplace likes consolidation. Since we announced our deal with Kootenay on January 13 our share price has doubled.”

    For the consolidation strategy to work Zaradic believes companies have to grow once the metal prices are depressed so they are large enough to leverage what she sees being an inevitable rebound within the silver price. When silver prices dragged along in 2015, Zaradic, like a strategic exercise started to take a look at other silver companies just as those companies were looking at Northair to find a fit.

    Kootenay Silver was certainly a fit on an asset basis and geographically having its flagship silver property in Mexico too. At that time the transaction was announced Zaradic stated, “La Negra and La Cigarra represent two of the highest profile new silver discoveries amongst non-majors in Mexico. The continued exploration successes at our flagship projects put the combined company inside a strong position, distinguishing us from our peers.”

    Zaradic says “The combined company come in a powerful financial position to complete its consolidation plan while simultaneously advancing its flagship assets.  A situation that will be bolstered by a $2,000,000 investment into Kootenay by Pan American included in a choice agreement on Kootenay’s Promontorio Mineral Belt silver properties. An agreement which brings not only the investment but also as much as $16 million US of expenditures and payments to Kootenay plus a pathway to production in the form of a 25% carried to production interest.”

    The option agreement between Kootenay and Pan American was announced February 16, with closing anticipated early March 2016 and also the direct investment by Pan American may increase to nearly $3.3 million post-Northair acquisition closing. “Pan American is one of the largest silver producers in Mexico.” said Zaradic “It has tremendous operating experience in Mexico and Kootenay’s Le Negra deposit is extremely attractive given its closeness to one of Pan American’s operations which is starting to run out of material.”

    Upon closing of the transaction with Kootenay, Northair shareholders will get, for each common share of Northair held, 0.35 common shares of Kootenay, plus 0.15 of the tradable warrant to buy Kootenay common shares at an exercise cost of $0.55 for five years from closing. Upon completing the Transaction, Northair will end up a wholly-owned subsidiary of Kootenay, and former shareholders of Northair will hold approximately 40% from the shares of Kootenay with an outstanding shares basis.  If Zaradic is right about silver consolidation and if the history of the 2000 to 2008 run were to repeat itself, the company shares have significant homer potential.

    Once the transaction forwards and backwards companies is finished, plans call for further consolidation along with drilling and exploration at La Cigarra underneath the Kootenay management team and growth of the Promontorio Mineral Belt silver resources underneath the option agreement with Pan American.

    Zaradic herself will keep her involvement like a director of Kootenay. “This is the initial step within our growth means of silver consolidation.” said Zaradic, “We likely have turned the corner around the silver price. In a year or two or maybe three the price of silver should rise.”

    When it does, Northair shareholders will be in position to take full benefit of the potentially explosive growth in a well leveraged Mexican silver consolidator.

    At duration of writing Northair was trading at $.09 with 150.A million shares outstanding and a market cap of $13.51 million. Kootenay was trading at $.26 with 79.4 million shares outstanding and a market cap of $20.25 million.

    [Both Northair and Kootenay is going to be attending the PDAC Conference in Toronto March 6-9. Andrea Zaradic is going to be presenting at the National Post Investor Forum Monday March 7.]

  • Bank of Canada warns of email scams claiming to come from the central bank

    Bank of Canada warns of email scams claiming to come from the central bank

    The Bank of Canada is warning about email and social media scams that are claiming to come from the bank.

    OTTAWA – The financial institution of Canada is issuing a warning about email and social media scams which are claiming in the future from the bank.

    Canada’s central bank says the scams are utilizing its logos and letterhead without authorization and misrepresenting it.

    The Bank of Canada says it does not accept deposits from individuals or on behalf of them, nor will it collect personal or financial information from individuals through email.

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  • Food inflation has deepened the price gap at discount grocery stores, and Loblaw Cos is set to cash in

    Food inflation has deepened the price gap at discount grocery stores, and Loblaw Cos is set to cash in

    Loblaw is set to gain from a period of "pricing confusion" that has discount grocers not yet implementing price increases, thanks to its large network of discount stores, No Frills.

    TORONTO – An increase in food prices has widened the cost divide between Canada’s supermarkets as well as their discount divisions – an issue that could play out in Loblaw Cos.’ favour.

    “Looking at identical items, the discount channel doesn’t have the symptoms of increased shelf prices to the significant degree, as the conventional channel has significantly increased shelf prices,” analyst Keith Howlett of Dejardins Securities wrote within an industry report Monday after an assessment of grocery price fluctuations between retail channels. “We also note a greater diversity of pricing on identical items between competitors in the same channel inside the same trading area.”

    Howlett anticipates the pricing gap between discount and conventional channels will move toward equilibrium within the next four to six weeks.

    But among public grocers, “this duration of pricing confusion favours leader in the industry Loblaw,” given its scale relative to other players and its large network of discount stores, No Frills.

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  • Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc under investigation by U.S. SEC

    Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc under investigation by U.S. SEC

    Valeant's head office in Laval, Quebec. The drugmaker's stock was already down about 10 per cent on Monday, after Valeant said it would withdraw its financial forecast and will delay releasing fourth-quarter results.

    Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. is under investigation through the U.S. Filing in a previously undisclosed probe, the organization said on Monday, capping a tumultuous 24-hour period that saw the firm announce the return of its CEO and also the cancellation of an earnings announcement.

    The SEC probe is outside of an existing investigation right into a company purchased by Valeant this past year, Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd., said a person acquainted with the matter. The person declined to discuss the record since the matter isn’t yet public.

    It’s unclear what the new probe is centered around.

    “Valeant confirms that it has several ongoing investigations, including investigations through the U.S. Attorney’s Offices for Massachusetts and the Southern District of recent York, the SEC, and Congress,” said Laurie Little, a Valeant spokeswoman.

    Judy Burns, an SEC spokeswoman, declined to discuss the new probe.

    Related

  • Conference Board highlights LNG’s potential, notes its uncertainty in British Columbia

    Conference Board highlights LNG’s potential, notes its uncertainty in British Columbia

    AltaGas's Douglas Channel LNG was widely considered one of the projects most likely to be built in B.C. Analysts now say the company's inability to find sufficient customers for a smaller scale LNG project is a bearish sign for the larger projects.

    CALGARY C The British Columbia government stands to gain $2.9 billion per year if three liquefied natural gas vegetation is built on the province’s coastline, according to a new report funded by one of the LNG project proponents.

    The Conference Board of Canada noted in a new report, paid for with a subsidiary of Malaysia’s state-owned oil company and LNG proponent Petronas, that “there is a superb amount of uncertainty all around the number, size and timing on the projects that might proceed as the (LNG) industry is constantly on the develop.” However, the Monday report suggests that this kind of industry could reduce the province’s unemployment rate and boost economic activity.

    The think-tank’s report noted that three LNG projects, with a cumulative creation of 30 mega tonnes of LNG each year, could generate $6.2 billion in revenues for multiple levels of government and produce more people into B.C., boosting the province’s inflation rate by about 0.25 per cent.

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  • Peer-to-peer loan arranger Lending Loop, in talks with regulators, halts new loan requests

    Peer-to-peer loan arranger Lending Loop, in talks with regulators, halts new loan requests

    Lending Loop launched in October and offers U.S.-style peer-to-peer lending. The model allows anyone with $50 to pool their money in larger loans that are extended to small businesses.

    Lending Loop, a Canadian fintech firm which was extending U.S.-style peer-to-peer crowdsourced loans to small businesses, has stopped posting new loan requests on its website although it meets regulators to ensure its model “complies with all of applicable laws.” 

    A notice to that effect was posted around the company’s website Tuesday. 

    The halt within the posting of recent applications through the marketplace lender was characterized as “voluntary and temporary” and “an act of excellent faith.”

    The notice did not name the regulatory authorities Lending Loop is within discussions with, however the Ontario Securities Commission issued a public notice to all marketplace lenders this past year, urging these to seek legal and regulatory advice to make sure their operations were adhering to securities law or relying on appropriate exemptions.

    Lending Loop launched in October and the founders were coy about how exactly the firm could offer U.S.-style peer-to-peer lending. The model allows a person with $50 to pool their cash in larger loans that are extended to small businesses. 

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  • Why the Fed Doesn’t Want Emerging Markets to Run

    Why the Fed Doesn’t Want Emerging Markets to Run

    Downtrend stacks coins,on the financial stock charts as background. Selective focus

    Yesterday, the ASX 200 closed beneath 5,000 points for the first time since late September. This tried to bounce higher several times, but couldn’t. The index actually closed less than a stage away from its low. It is really an indication of heavy selling and suggests further falls are ahead.

    Thanks to a late bounce in stocks within US trading overnight, there is a bit of respite in store for Aussie stocks today. But the ASX 200 is still well beneath support at 5,000 points.

    I’ve written for several weeks now that 5,000 is a crucial level for the Aussie marketplace. A sustained break below here suggests this keep market is entering a new and nastier phase.

    But there is nuance to this analysis. It’s not as simple because just saying a fall below 5,000 points indicates the bear market can get worse. You’ve got to look just a little deeper.

    Looking deeper is something I’ll be doing for subscribers of Crisis & Opportunity this week, so out of regard for them, I won’t go into too much detail here. But I will say that the break below 5,000 this week might not be as bad as it seems. A few other things have to go wrong before you get seriously worried about where the forex market is headed.

    Mind you, there is plenty of scope for items to go wrong. Firstly, the mid year budget update, due out today, should provide a wake-up call to anyone who thinks situations are travelling along nicely.

    That is, it should make it clear just how broken the Federal budget is. With metal ore, coal, gas and other commodity prices tanking, and with wages growth at multi-year lows, the government just won’t get the growth in tax receipts it needs to fund its promises.

    Without spending reform, the budget will just keep getting worse. But there won’t be any spending reform if the government does not first outline the problem. Underneath the ‘leadership’ of Abbott and Hockey, there wasn’t any intention to raise awareness of the problem because there was no intention in order to enact structural reforms.

    It appears as though Turnbull and Morrison are interested in doing some thing. But to do that, they need to tell us how bad things are. That isn’t going to be good for confidence within the lead up to Christmas. Santa Claus is certainly not coming to town. He isn’t even coming to the country.

    What otherwise could go wrong?

    Keep your eye around the banks. It’s all about their ability to maintain dividends. If this dividend support goes, the trapdoor will open and the market will plunge.

    More immediately, there’s the looming US rate decision. The market is panicking, selling off just like it did mid 12 months, when it assumed rates would rise in September.

    As Bloomberg reports:

    Once once again, the Federal Reserve is about to create a historic interest-rate decision against the backdrop of rising equity volatility, tumbling commodity prices and jitters in credit markets. This time, investors expect policy makers to pull the trigger.

    In the lead-up to the Dec. 16 decision, investors are contending with crude beneath $36 a barrel, stress within the U.S. junk-debt market and the longest streak of losses in global equities because August. While the financial turmoil spurred by China’s yuan devaluation that month stayed the Fed’s hand in September, policy makers possess since signaled increasing determination to go ahead with the first rate increase since 2006.

    The Fed really has not one other choice. They will have to raise rates this week. Otherwise the ‘market’ may have them in a corner and it will end up being obvious who the boss is really.

    This time the problems are in the high yield, or ‘junk bond’ markets. The collapse in commodity prices (particularly oil) is lastly working its way right through to the balance sheets of the companies that produce these goods.

    This is when it’s meant to work. Affordable prices eventually bring about a supply response. To cut supply, you need to cut financing. With a huge amount of financing occurring with the junk bond market in recent years, the current turmoil should not be surprising.

    This is just how the commodity period works. Although easy credit made this cycle much worse by giving marginal producers access to funds they normally would not have received.

    So problems in the rubbish bond market should not be an excuse for the Fed to hold away raising rates. But the issue is one of contagion. That is, will deficits in the junk bond marketplace spark selling elsewhere…that will lead to a general credit crunch?

    A similar threat is playing out in emerging markets. This is really only a continuation of what’s been occurring for the past six months. That is, numerous emerging market economies lent heavily in US dollars. And lots of rely on commodities to generate income in their local currency.

    The combination of falling local currency income and rising debt within US dollars is a toxic one. The market’s response is to sell assets in these countries, that sends their currency lower and interest rates higher. Which only makes things worse.

    According to the Wall Street Journal:

    Corporate debt in emerging markets had more than quadrupled in the decade to 2014, based on International Monetary Fund numbers. But investors have been tugging money out of the market this season, spooked by signs that borrowing was ballooning unsustainably ahead of an imminent rate increase by the Government Reserve.’

    So far it’s only a quick stroll to the exits. The Given will be hoping that their very first interest rate rise in a decade does not turn it into a run.

    If it does, you can expect to see the return of QE at the start of 2016. And plenty of market turmoil.

    Regards,

    Greg Canavan

  • Are Your Investments Ready for 2016?

    Are Your Investments Ready for 2016?

    Boss checking on his employee

    Looking forward into 2016, there will without doubt be further periods of volatility ahead — much like we saw in 2015. The important thing, though, is to approach the market with a good focus on what you want to achieve for that year.

    While investors need to be careful, too much negativity can lead to missed opportunities. One way to start the entire year is to compile a list of shares you’d like to own. And…be patient. You only need to look over a price chart to see how far some shares can swing in any provided year.

    I haven’t yet met anybody who can regularly pick a marketplace bottom, or a top for instance. So, if you pick an entry price, make sure you also have an exit price prior to placing your trade. That is, an end loss order.

    To kick issues off in 2016, I’m going to run through some of the different ways that investors can manage their trades. By manage, I’m talking about risk management. So let’s check out some of these different stop loss methods now.

    A review on risk management

    First, a quick review on just what a stop loss is. A stop loss is a pre-determined point that once brought on, exits you out of a industry. You don’t sit there and mull it over. Nor is it something debate. Once it hits that level, then you’re out.

    Though ordinarily a price level, you can also use additional points, like time, or a price to earnings (P/E) ratio, for example. A stop loss helps to manage your risk through setting out the maximum you’re prepared to lose on any given trade. However, in setting your stop loss, you needs to give your trade enough ‘room’ to move.

    Now let’s look at some of the more popular strategies.

    Fixed amount

    One of the most common ways to set a stop loss is a straight proportion. For example, a trader might choose that they’ll put a stop loss level 10% below their entry cost. If they had $2,000 allocated to a trade, then they might exit the trade as soon as it drops $200 in worth.

    However, you can see that 10% doesn’t give the trade much room to move. A decent correction is likely to knock you out of the trade. Determining what percentage to use often comes down to how long you plan to hold the industry for.

    A long term investor (somebody that might hold for seven, eight or more years) might use the wider stop. Something like 25% or even 30%. Again, the idea is to provide the trade enough room to move while still giving you an exit point if the trade goes against you.

    One thing to be aware is that this percentage is not an isolated number. It needs to be used in conjunction with the amount an investor allocates to any provided trade. If an investor made the decision they wanted to limit their own risk to a fixed amount for each trade, then a volatile stock will require the stop-loss to be further away than a much less volatile stock. This will figure out how many shares they buy.

    For example, if stock A is actually volatile and trading at $10, a trader might decide to use the 20% stop loss level from the entry price. That’s $2 below the entry price. If they wanted to risk $1,000 per trade, then they would buy 500 shares.

    That’s calculated by the risk quantity ($1,000) divided by the stop-loss amount ($2 — that’s 20% of $10), to provide you with 500 shares.

    Now, if stock B is also trading from $10 but less volatile, a trader might use a 10% stop loss underneath the entry price. That’s $1 underneath the entry price. Again, if they wanted to risk $1,000 for each trade, then they would purchase 1,000 shares.

    That’s determined by the risk amount ($1,000) divided by the stop loss quantity ($1 — that’s 10% of $10), to give you One,000 shares.

    While these are simple examples, they do show you that there’s a relationship between the number of gives you buy and the underlying unpredictability.

    Slippage

    One thing you need to always be aware of is slippage. Just because you place a stop loss level in a specific price, it doesn’t mean that you’ll always be filled at that price. You have to think of a stop loss as a ‘trigger’.

    Once the stop loss price is hit, it triggers your exit trade into the market. If there are no buyers at that level, you very well may get filled at a lower price than you anticipated. While there might be less chance of this happening with a big blue chip stock, it’s something you need to be conscious of. Especially with smaller, more speculative stocks.

    For example, let’s say an investor has a stop loss at $6.50 and the share price closes tonight at $6.60. If the marketplace opens tomorrow at $6.Forty, then their stop loss is actually triggered. In effect, the order has become ‘live’.

    However, they won’t get $6.50 since the price never traded there. Instead, it will be filled at the first available price on the market. In this example, it might be $6.Forty. Or, it could be lower. Your own exit trade needs to be matched up with a buyer before the trade will go through.

    Some brokers will help you to limit the maximum amount of slippage you’ll accept before not putting the trade. If any doubt, give your broker a call and ask how them how their trading platform works.

    Trailing stops

    A trailing stop loss is simply as the name implies. Instead of the stop loss level remaining fixed at the same level, it shadows the price movement from the underlying share. As the stock price moves up, also does the stop less degree.

    The most common way to do this is to maneuver your trailing stop at a set percentage level behind the proportion price. While you might start with the percentage you set your stop loss from, it doesn’t mean that you have to stick with it.

    If the actual chart shows that the price is starting to flatten out or change direction, a trader might decide to tighten the stop-loss percentage to trigger an exit. That is, to lock in a profit. For some, this can give a clear cut way to manage their trades. It stops them from trying to guess when you should get out of a trade. In effect, it takes the emotion from the decision.

    These strategies revolve around the cost of the stock. But the cost isn’t the only thing to make use of when working out your exit strategy.

    Other exit strategies

    Quite often an investor might find that, if a stock doesn’t go in their path to start with, then it might not go their way at all. Probably the trend they bought into has lost momentum. That is, just as they buy into it, the stock starts to trade sideways.

    One way to manage this is by using ‘time stops’. A time stop takes you from your trade after a fixed time period. The time frame you choose will depend on your own trading strategy. For a day trader it might be as short as Half an hour. For a trader working on a weekly time scale, it might be a single day, or they may make use of the open of the second day as an exit trigger.

    It might be that they haven’t lost any money at all. However, there are only a lot of trades they can do from any one time with their account. So, they want to avoid tying their money up in a industry that isn’t going anywhere.

    And obviously, there is always technical analysis. It might be something as basic as a five day moving average crossing over a 30 day moving average.

    As you can see, there are a multitude of different exit strategies you can use. It might be based on fundamental data — a trader might exit once a stock exceeds a certain P/E ratio. Or even, if a dividend yield begins creeping up to what appears like an unsustainable level, then this could trigger an exit.

    Whichever technique you use, a stop loss is a really important tool to help you keep your cash when the market requires a turn for the worse.

    What’s ahead for 2016

    As I wrote at the beginning of this update, I think 2016 may throw us more unpredictability. In doing so, the market will also give us more opportunities to buy into high quality stocks at better costs than you could in a runaway bull market.

    It’s a year that will reward the patient investor.

    I’m really looking forward to getting stuck in to the markets in 2016. Here’s wishing that it will be a prosperous year for everyone.

    Regards,

    Matt Hibbard,

    Editor, Total Income

    Ed Note: This is an edited extract from a Total Income update. To find out more about Total Income click here.

    From the Port Phillip Posting Library

    Special Report: You probably already feeling that stocks might be in for another bumpy ride in 2016. But that doesn’t have to mean that you have to miss out on making great money. Because, according to small-cap analyst Sam Volkering, certain stocks could rise hundreds of percent regardless of what happens in the next 12 months. In this special report, Sam unveils the simple principle behind that success. And you’ll also discover their top three small-cap picks with regard to 2016, which could bring you gains as high as 338% over the next 12 months. (more)

  • A 47% Gain For Those ‘Lucky’ Few in the Right Area

    A 47% Gain For Those ‘Lucky’ Few in the Right Area

    Aussie One Dollar Coins

    As we march into the future that 2016 will bring, remember something.

    There’s little new about the economic climate we live in.

    The game continues to be same, as we keep telling our subscribers over at Cycles, Trends and Forecasts.

    It’s pretty simple: find the best location, borrow as much as you can, and get someone else to pay off the interest.

    You may run with that basic strategy for a long time to come.

    You only have to browse the latest stats out of Western Sydney to see why…

    Thanks to the public: money for nothin’

    On Thursday this week the NSW Valuer-General released his latest figures.

    What will we find?

    The Australian Financial Review reported yesterday:

    Residential land in Sydney’s west has topped the growth chart for that state, driven by a huge surge in infrastructure construction.

    Blacktown, 42 kilometres west of the CBD, posted the highest growth in land values at 47 percent in 2014-15, followed by Holroyd and Parramatta at growth rates of Thirty eight per cent and 35.9 per cent, respectively.’

    The land price requires the gain of the enhancements put in around it. Excellent if you happen to own a home in the region.

    Too bad for those of us slaving away for wages and profits each day. We get stuck with the actual tax bill that pays for the actual infrastructure which is driving these land values through the roof.

    And we are able to include in the bill the interest from the debt repayments from the government deficits.

    And, of course, as the post notes, all this is ‘exacerbating the actual affordability problem in Sydney.’

    Oh, well, there is little you and I can do about this. But it might pay for you to definitely pay careful attention to see where the government plans to build facilities.

    Land values in the area will increase accordingly.

    Australia’s insane tax system gifts windfalls like this to homeowners for doing precisely nothing, and taxes people who actually work and create wealth.

    I’m sure you do not need reminding that the ASX 200 finished down for the year in 2015.

    But rising house prices keep the voters happy and compliant and — most importantly for a politician — spending.

    Australia leading the world in Ferraris, Porsches and Bmw Benzes

    Bloomberg reports that luxury car sales in Australia are booming. Sales of the Ferrari NV, for one, were up 48% in 2015.

    Take a look at how the premium brands tend to be fared last year…

    Click to enlarge

    Perhaps it’s all those cashed up realtors in NSW and Victoria?

    I’m becoming facetious. It has to be broader than that.

    Consider that a couple of notable auto-related stocks taking in and out of the new high list lately are Carsales.com.dans [ASX: CAR] and Automotive Holdings Group [ASX: AHG].

    These information mill growing earnings because people are pleased to spend on cars. It doesn’t suggest an imminent recession to me.

    In fact, this is in line with what’s happening in the US, too. Vehicle sales hit an all time higher last year in America. That’s mostly been attributed it in order to cheap petrol, strong work and low interest rates.

    They might have mentioned a strengthening property market, too. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that rents rose at their fastest pace in the US since 2009 last year.

    That’s 6 consecutive years of growth. It’s almost inconceivable that pattern will change in the US anytime soon.

    Before Xmas most of the financial coverage centered on the effect of the Fed raising rates. They did. Do the world collapse? No.

    Here’s something which few noticed, but which is far more important. Bloomberg reported prior to Christmas that US President Obama signed to law a stride easing a 35 year old tax on foreign investment in US real estate.

    That opens the door for overseas investors to invest more income into US property. Which will translate to higher prices. This is actually the real estate cycle at work.

    Most experts will miss the importance of this because they do not factor in the macro effect of rising land prices.

    But this cycle is nothing new. You can see the same dynamic happening in a book written in 1933 called 100 Years of Land Values within Chicago, written by a man called Great hit Hoyt.

    Next comes the expansion in credit as more people have to take out larger loans to buy their means by to the market. That’s expansionary for that economy, as I mentioned yesterday.

    Of course, anyone’s who has read Hoyt’s book knows those that enter the earliest make the most from the admiring property values.

    It’s the latecomers who turn out to be the suckers when the inevitable happens and home goes down.

    To make sure you know when you should be in and out of the marketplace, go here.

    Best wishes,

    Callum Newman

  • Understanding the Death of the US Dollar

    Understanding the Death of the US Dollar

    US Dollars

    In spite of our dismal expense landscape, financial cheerleaders still influx their pom-poms and urge you to buy stocks and bonds ‘for the long run’. You only need to look at bond marketplaces to see what I mean.

    Short term Treasuries possess almost no yield. Long-term Treasuries offer 2% if the investor is prepared to wager on no inflation for 10 years.

    High-yield corporate debt is loaded with credit risk at this stage from the cycle. The defaults are likely to pile up as we enter a worldwide growth recession in early 2016.

    Yet you’re urged to blindly enter this market. Based on assurances that all is well and the next Two decades will echo the past Two decades.

    Meanwhile, the financial foundation constructed on the dollar is rotting away.

    The historical precedent for the slow loss of reserve currency status is the strange case associated with sterling. The story begins with a geopolitical event far removed from the keeping track of rooms of London — the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of the AustroHungarian Empire, by a Serbian terrorist in Sarajevo upon 28 June 1914.

    When the First World War started on 28 July, 30 days after the assassination of the Archduke, all of the major belligerents immediately suspended the conversion of their currencies into gold except the UK. The conventional view was that nations needed to hoard gold as well as print money to pay for the war, which is why they suspended convertibility.

    The UK took a different strategy. By maintaining the link to precious metal, London maintained its credit rating. This enabled the UK to borrow to pay for the war. It had been John Maynard Keynes who convinced the united kingdom to remain on the gold standard. It was Jack Morgan, son of JP Morgan, who organised massive loans in New York to support the British war effort.

    Initially there were large outflows of gold from the US to the UK. Even though the United kingdom remained on the gold standard, investors sold stocks, bonds as well as land in the US, converted the proceeds into gold, after which shipped the gold towards the Bank of England.

    In The fall of 1914, the flow of precious metal suddenly reversed. The Uk needed US exports of meals, wool, cotton, oil, as well as weapons. All of this had to be paid for either in gold or lbs sterling that could be converted into gold. The gold that had flowed eastern from New York to Birmingham now began to flow western from London to New York.

    From November 1914 until the end of the war in November 1918, there were huge gold inflows to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and its private member banks. It was at this time that the dollar emerged as a brand new global reserve currency in order to challenge the supremacy of sterling.

    The process of the dollar replacing sterling began in November 1914, but there wasn’t any immediate or sudden fall of sterling. Throughout the 1920s, the actual dollar and sterling competed side-by-side for that role of leading reserve currency. Scholar Barry Eichengreen offers documented how the dollar as well as sterling took turns in the leading role with the lead transferring back-and-forth several times.

    But by 1931, the race was becoming one-sided. The buck was starting to pull away. Winston Churchill experienced blundered by pegging sterling to gold at an unrealistic rate in 1925. The actual super strong sterling that resulted decimated UK trade, and set the UK in a depression 3 years before the rest of the world. UK trade deficits caused Commonwealth trading partners such as Australia and Canada to get stuck with huge unwanted reserves in sterling.

    The increase of the dollar, and the constant decline of sterling continued through the 1930s until the start of the Second World War in 1939. At that point, the UK hanging the convertibility of sterling into gold. The international monetary system broke down for the second time in 25 years. Normal trade, currency exchange, and gold convertibility remained suspended until the international monetary system could be reformed.

    This reform happened at the Bretton Woods international monetary conference held in New Hampshire in July 1944. That conference marked the final ascendency of the dollar because the leading global reserve currency.

    From 1944 to 1971, major currencies, including sterling, were pegged to the dollar. The dollar was pegged to gold at US$35.00 per ounce. Bretton Forest was the definitive finish to the role of sterling as the leading reserve currency. The conference enshrined the dollar in the leading reserve currency part — a position it has held since.

    The point of this history is to show that the replacement of sterling by the dollar as the leading book currency was not an event, it had been a process. The process played out more than 30 years, from 1914 to 1944. It involved a seesaw dynamic by which sterling would try to reclaim the crown only to lose it again.

    With hindsight it is possible to see that the actual turning point took place in November 1914 when gold outflows from the All of us reversed and became inflows. Those inflows ongoing until 1950 despite two globe wars, and the Great Depressive disorders.

    Yet, no one saw the fall at the time.

    From the Bank of England’s perspective, November 1914 may have seen gold outflows, but no one believed the entire process of decline was inevitable or even irreversible. The belief in London was that Britain would earn the war, maintain the kingdom, and preserve sterling’s position because the most valued currency on the planet.

    Britain did win the war, but the cost was too great. They lost the actual empire and sterling lost its role as the leading reserve currency. The issue for traders today is whether the US buck already had its November 1914 moment.

    Is it possible that the collapse of the US dollar as the leading reserve currency has already begun? The answer is ‘yes’.

    Looking at the huge flows of gold in order to China, the rise of a buck competitor in the form of the SDR, and the coming inclusion of the Chinese yuan in the SDR basket, it is difficult to not conclude that the dollar fall has already begun.

    Yet, like the collapse of sterling a century ago, the decline of the dollar won’t necessarily happen overnight.

    It is a slow, steady process.

    Jim Rickards,

    Strategist, Strategic Intelligence

    From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

    Special Report: If you want to get ahead in this world, it pays to have effective friends in high locations. With this new advisory, you’ll make one. A portfolio manager at the West Shore Group, and adviser on international economics and financial threats towards the US Department of Defense. Jim Rickards isn’t any ordinary financial newsletter author.?And Strategic Intelligence is no ordinary e-newsletter… (more)

  • What Can You Do To Protect Your Investments?

    What Can You Do To Protect Your Investments?

    gold and silver rings_lge

    There’s nothing like a battle in the Middle East to fire in the oil price. News that Saudi Arabia launched air strikes across the Yemeni border sent the oil cost up nearly 4.5% last week.

    Gold had a strong reaction as well, rallying to nearly US$1,220 an ounce in London industry before retreating during the US program. Aussie dollar gold had a good session too, closing from $1,540 an ounce after falling to a low of $1,475 just a 7 days earlier.

    As I’ve been stating, the US dollar gold cost that you hear quoted everyday continues to be lacklustre. But the Aussie dollar precious metal price — the price that matters for you personally if you’re investing in Aussie listed gold stocks — looks much more good.

    If you want to know how to take advantage of this emerging new trend, click here.

    The conflict in Yemen is another proxy battle between Iran and Saudi Arabia, following on from the tragic ordeal that is Syria. Yemen has been a failed state for some time now and has provided the actual impetus for the Iranian backed Houthis to gain a foothold of power.

    The Saudi’utes aren’t happy about it; therefore, the launch of airstrikes and a large troop buildup on the border. Whether this particular escalates or dies down from here is anyone’s guess.

    Regardless, under the surface there is a slow change in the balance of energy in the Middle East. Iran’s impact is rising. The Saudis are under stress. The proxy war between the two within Syria has been going for years. This really is probably the start of a similar situation in Yemen.

    As an investor, is this anything you should worry about? Not immediately. But there’s no doubt the troubles in the area will continue to have a greater impact in the West.

    The Syrian conflict gave rise to ISIS. Another war will just create another generation associated with young men without hope, fuelling revolutionary ideologies and violence. Great.

    Is there anything you can do about it? Not really. You can be tolerant as well as understanding, non-judgemental and compassionate in your life. Good and decent behaviour comes with a flow on impact, even if you don’t see where it flows.

    But wait! Our beat is money, not really morality or virtue. Therefore let’s get selfish and focus on what you can control in the world of money and materialism.

    You can control your investment decisions where you get your ideas, which is why you’re reading this non-mainstream publication. You’ve clearly decided to take greater control over your money by becoming more informed as well as perhaps investing yourself.

    On that front, I have something that might be of great interest to you. Over the weekend break, we launched a new support focussed on income opportunities called Total Income. You’ve heard from Editor Matt Hibbard throughout last week during these pages, but if you’re like me, you probably have a number of questions about what the service will be regarding.

    With that in mind, I sat down with Matt Fri to ask a few probing questions about Total Income. We chatted for about 30 minutes. I’m a pretty erratic interviewer, so the below Q&A is an modified version.

    I started by requesting a question based on an important stage that Matt raised in his very first essay, on Monday last week…

    You mentioned in your first essay last week that allowing for risk [Editor’s note: making sure you don’t overpay for a stock simply to obtain the yield] is the most important thing income investors must do. But how do they do this inside a world of central bank manipulation that deliberately mis-prices risk?

    What I intended by that comment was that you have to distinguish between the different types of results paying companies. It’s about putting a risk premium on cash flows — smaller, much less established dividend payers would probably be a more risky investment than a larger company by having an established record of paying out dividends. In other words, it isn’t just a straight line process of going through the cash balance, EPS (earnings per share) and dividend growth, as well as making a recommendation without taking into account the risk attached to the cash flows.

    In relation to your question about main banks manipulating the risk premium, it’s true and something that all income investors need to be conscious of. But no one knows how long this state of affairs continues. It could be like this for years to come.

    My technique to deal with it is to focus on asset allocation, diversification, and low levels of leverage. People need to be totally aware of the potential risks that central banks have formulated with their low rates and money publishing, even if the market isn’t adequately pricing in those risks.

    The other thing to keep an eye on is inflation…

    Well that brings me to another question I had. Normally, higher inflation is good for earnings investors as it often leads to higher interest rates and dividends. However in today’s world, persistent concerns over deflation have kept interest rates reduced and asset prices high. To what extent are you concerned that rising inflation might cause a big fall in asset prices, negating the benefits of receiving an income yield?

    Like many people, I’ve found it hard to believe that years of cash printing won’t lead to a rise in inflation in the future. But we haven’t seen it yet and we may not view it for years to come. We’re in uncharted territory. No one knows exactly what lies ahead. It could be years of more of the identical or something completely different. All investors can do is deal with the problems as they are.

    One thing I expect to do is keep a close eye on the number of inflation statistics and offer these in the newsletter in an ‘income dashboard’, so members can monitor this stuff regularly and get a sense of how the marketplace is reacting to the prospects associated with inflation.

    Going back to your previously comment on asset allocation as well as diversification, what does this mean in terms of of what stocks and sectors you’ll be looking at?

    The primary aim of the newsletter is to go beyond the obvious ‘dividend payers’ like the banks or Telstra. There are hundreds of results payers in the market and my work is to uncover the quality companies that can sustain a dividend through the economic cycle. So I’lmost all be focussing on an ‘overlooked’ area of the market for sustainable dividend payers, if you want to put it that way.

    The other aspect to keep in mind is that the dividend payers I’lmost all be recommending are long-term holdings. I recognise people need earnings from stocks for the long term and are less concerned about short term marketplace fluctuations. So I’m not going to try and time entry into and out of stocks. When the fundamentals are strong and also the divvy is sustainable, I’m happy to buy and hold.

    What does that mean for mining stocks as income payers? Will they feature in Total Income at all?

    Yes and no. A lot of the miners don’capital t pay a dividend anyhow. And some only do from cycle highs, which doesn’capital t satisfy my demand for sustainable dividends through the cycle.

    One thing I will look at is a ‘special situation’ pick where I might look at a BHP, RIO…or a Woodside or Santos. It might be where it’s close to a cycle base for their particular or dominant commodity and they are paying out a sustainable dividend that should increase as commodity prices recover. It will be on the case by case basis, but these people won’t feature heavily.

    Thanks Shiny and best of luck with Total Income!

    To learn more about Matt’s methods for income trading and the initial recommendations that Total Income released with on Saturday, click here.

    Regards,

    Greg Canavan,
    Editor, Sound Money. Sound Opportunities.

    From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

    Special Report: You’lso are about to discover a radically different way to build wealth. It’s the same alter market veteran Matt Hibbard created after 30 years battling away in the financial markets. These days he or she lives a relaxed, comfy life on Victoria’s Bellarine Peninsula…happier and more financially secure than he ever was prior to. And when you finish watching his brand new video, you’ll be with that road too.