Can Malaysia's Najib Razak Survive the Allegations Against Him?

Malaysian Prime Minister and Finance Reverend Najib Razak face explosive allegations of embezzlement, corruption, and electoral manipulation which go to the very core associated with his leadership and the authenticity of his government. United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), Najib’s political party, and Malaysia itself happen to be plunged into yet another turmoil.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) delivered to the fore questions of monetary mismanagement, undermining the reputation of Malaysia’s financial institutions. The alleged amounts in Najib’s bank account (US$700 million) have created shockwaves. UMNO leaders know that even in the massive election giveaways in the 2013 general election, this sort of cash did not all go down the patronage network.

The issue available is what Najib will do — he has currently done serious damage to the nation. Unfortunately, every day he stays in office, his leadership negatively affects the country’s status. Malaysia’s international credibility is on the line, as is its forex, access to foreign capital and future economic prosperity.

Unlike his father, Malaysia’s second leading Abdul Razak Hussein, Najib has apparently chosen to place himself first rather than the country. During his tenure, Najib has effectively used the country’s politics institutions to strengthen his individual position.

Najib deserves a fair and impartial investigation of the accusations made by the WSJ. This can happen if he opts to take leave during the investigation time period and appoints respected impartial individuals to lead the investigation. Rather, his approach has been to problem denials, engage in counter-attacks and to allocate a non-impartial task force to investigate the matter. The lack of impartiality does not develop credibility, especially in international marketplaces.

However, UMNO, rather than Najib, will be the main determining factor of developments ahead. The party has been split into 3 camps — those loyal to Najib and his generous patronage; those opposed to him, but hesitant to have an open challenge; and those in the middle, waiting to be sure to land on the ‘safe side’, which will safeguard their political and financial survival. Najib does not command a good majority, but relies heavily on those who work in the middle to stay in office. This particular middle group will determine UMNO as well as Najib’s future. They will determine whether the party’s and country’s or individual’s, interests are more important.

The important individuals swaying these camps will be senior leaders within UMNO — those who have national position — and the groomed new generations associated with leaders in the party. The actual backroom meetings will continue with the clamour from the grassroots of the party. The public returns of wrongdoing are more difficult to dismiss in discussions behind closed doors.

Most interest has centred on former UMNO Pm Mahathir Mohamad, demonised by the very people he or she groomed and mentored in national politics for relentlessly attacking Najib. However there are others who have influence and they recognise the seriousness of these issues for Malaysia’s standing beyond self-interest. These senior leaders are in possession of the choice to lead the country out of the crisis it is facing.

A 3rd group inside UMNO are the younger leaders. Najib’s leadership sharply divides UNMO Youth, reflecting the actual pattern within UMNO itself. Those in the cabinet representing the youth appear to remain loyal to Najib, but the explosive revelations have increased differences inside this crucial party organ. UMNO’s more youthful leaders have the most to lose if Najib’s leadership continues to decline, damaging their political (and economic) futures. Some believe that Najib can weather this particular crisis, having faith in the ‘avoid and deny’ dynamic, but other people realise that the majority of Malaysians see the turmoil for what it is — one of the most damaging political events for UMNO within the country’s history.

However, out of every crisis there is opportunity. Claims that the opposition is a ‘mess’ reflect the frustrations of the electorate concerning the lack of a viable political alternative. The opposition has not lived up to public expectations. Former opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim remains in jail and the fight within the opposition has been about who to replace him, rather than to drive forward the principles of change that won support for the opposition in the first place. Power and personality struggles have paralysed effective opposition leadership.

UMNO’s crisis provides an opportunity for the resistance to regroup. The reactions to the scandal reveal those who are genuinely interested in reform. It serves as common ground to reaffirm principles of institutional integrity, anti-corruption, public accountability, and good governance. The scandal came at a time of a weakening currency, rising inflation from the goods, services tax, and haphazard reduction of subsidies— in short, when regular people are hurting.

The test right now will be whether the opposition will focus on shared interests for the nation or continue to dissatisfy. So far, the opposition has achieved the latter. It does not have unity and is unable to concentrate on the core issues involved. There appears to be little collaboration and concentrate on what Malaysia needs — a clear path toward greater reform, political stability, and economic confidence.

This crisis will reveal the capability, personality, and mettle of opposition as well as UMNO leaders alike. It will also tag a turning point for the community, as they move toward challenging reform, democracy, and good governance.

The current scandal may indeed appear to be one of Malaysia’s darkest times, not ignoring that there is the opportunity of even darker days forward in the evolution of this turmoil as Najib fights to hold onto power. However, there are choices at multiple levels that may put the country on the correct side of history.

Corruption scandal divides Malaysia’s political elite is republished with permission from Eastern Asia Forum