Blog

  • Goldman Derivatives’ Ugly Double Role in Greek Tragedy

    Goldman Derivates Collateral

    27 February 2010. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Politics Economist, EconomyWatch.com.

    27 February 2010. Through David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com.

    Even though we have some actual questions regarding significant aspects of Warren Buffet’s relations with Goldman Sachs, we have usually appreciated his outspokenly negative portrayal of one of his erstwhile colleagues’ preferred playthings – derivatives – as “economic weaponry of mass destruction.”

    In our view, the nuclear metaphor is actually entirely apt, since – once these things DO explode – there will be two aspects: the actual immediate “blast effects” and the long-range “fallout” – each of which will cause intense suffering, otherwise death, for individuals and establishments coming in contact with them. Remember that 100 million more people are hungry thanks to the Financial Crisis.

    Despite his and our consistent warnings concerning the potential dangers of these totally un-transparent and un-regulated instruments, the keyword until now has been “potential”.

    But the situation in Greece begins to outline, in all too painful detail, how the utilization of derivatives can, in this case, exacerbate an already screwed-up situation, and, in the case of the US housing market, create a issue when none previously existed – which is why Americans, Asians and others, and not only the directly affected Men and women, should pay careful attention to the unfolding Greek tragedy.

    In this regard, it is nice to see the New York Occasions beginning to play a more positive role in making sure the consequences of those “economic nuclear devices” are clear towards the public. To be sure, the Times has done some landmark reporting on the destructive effects of these and other instruments, especially in the hands of Goldman Sachs. But, as we have pointed out, they have consistently “hidden those stories in plain sight” by releasing them at times when fairly few people are going to see them.

    Now, however, even they are seeming to realize the detrimental effects of the actual “double game” they and most additional mainstream media organizations regularly play with major advertisers and other powerful forces in society, whose activities they must expose in order to maintain “journalistic credibility” at a time when the web is destroying daily the company plan by which they have operated not less than two hundred years without cutting off either much-needed revenues or equally-crucial access to sources within these powerful groups.

    It was therefore somewhat encouraging – at least from a “public enlightenment” point of view … the substance is truly frightening – to read 2 major pieces the Times did not [for a change, whenever it comes to Goldman] “conceal in plain sight”, but actually put in prominent places, and maintained for a while, on their web site.

    The first appeared on February 24, as well as was notable in three ways:

    1.     

    It made clear the structural similarities in the methods used by Goldman Sachs and others in how these people handled BOTH the Greece “sovereign debt” situation AND the US housing market.

    2.   

    It did a nice job of explaining the way the derivatives in question – credit-default swaps – actually worked, again, both in relation to A holiday in greece and the still-waiting-for-the-other-shoes-to-drop-mortgage-backed-securities-MBS- American International Team [AIG] scandal, and

    3.   

    Perhaps most explosively – which is saying something – it revealed how Goldman, JP Morgan Chase contributing to a dozen other banks involved with “helping” Greece through the – again, un-regulated and totally non-transparent – use of derivatives had simultaneously backed the heretofore almost unknown company that had created an index that enabled the market players to wager on whether Greece and other European nations would go bust.

    Let’s start with the architectural similarities:

    Bets by some of the same banking institutions that helped Greece shroud its mounting debts may actually now be pushing the nation nearer to the brink of financial ruin.

    Echoing the type of trades that nearly toppled the United states International Group, the increasingly popular insurance coverage against the risk of a Greek default is making it tougher for Athens to raise the money it needs to pay its bills, according to traders and money managers.

    These contracts, referred to as credit-default swaps, effectively let banks and protect funds wager on the financial equivalent of a four-alarm fire: a default by a company or, in the case of Greece, a whole country. If Greece reneges on it’s debts, traders who personal these swaps stand to profit.

    “It’s like buying fire insurance on your neighbor’s house — a person create an incentive to burn on the house,” said Philip Gisdakis, head of credit strategy at UniCredit in Munich. …

    If that sounds familiar, it should. Critics of those instruments contend swaps led to the fall of Lehman Brothers.

    But until recently, there was small demand for insurance on federal government debt. The possibility that a created country could default upon its obligations seemed distant.

    So how is it that these credit-default swaps – in whose acronym CDS became well-known throughout Black September 2008, despite the fact that few understood what they intended, even fewer how they really worked – operate,

    making it possible for companies such as Goldman Sachs and others to simultaneously “help” their clients acquire loan money, while making sure they on their own would profit, in some ways even more, if their clients actually couldn’t pay back the money they were assisting them secure ???

    The underlying theory of a credit-default swap is fairly simple, once it’s explained clearly enough to “outsiders.”

    At the same time frame banks are loaning huge amounts of money to either companies or even, as in this case, countries, they want to make sure their loans / investments are safe.

    In order to do that, these people take out insurance, usually with a large enough insurance company – say, AIG – able to stand up to the pressure should the worst happen – for example, either the company goes bankrupt or country defaults on its obligations.

    Unfortunately, whether intentionally or not, the existence of these credit score default swaps makes more and more likely the eventuality they are allegedly in place to make sure doesn’t occur – that is, a bankruptcy or default.

    The result, therefore, is a vicious cycle.

    If, for reasons uknown, a country like Greece begins to appear it’utes going to have problems paying its debts, banks and others who have already loaned / committed to that country rush to buy these credit default swaps Or CDSs / default insurance policies / whatever you want to call them.

    This increased demand creates a rise in the price of these default insurance policies, which is hardly surprising.

    However, once the price of the insurance policies starts to rise, it – equally unsurprisingly – becomes more expensive, if not impossible, for the country in question to find the money it must pay off its existing obligations.

    As it might be harder for them to find the money they need to pay their debts, the potential of a defaultthe very outcome the CDSs / default insurance policies were supposed to help guard againstbecomes increasingly likely.

    Given the speed of modern financial transactions, this vicious cycle can blow up in a matter of hours:

    Creditors become concerned and panicked about losing their money – leading them to become active within the credit default market.

    This reduces available lending sources Or increases interest rates for the nation wishing to borrow, hence producing default more likely.

    This leads to even more demand from creditors – and hence higher prices for – the CDSs / default insurance policies,

    in change making it ever more expensive and much more difficult for the country to find the cash to pay its debts – etc etc etc etc, as Yul Brynner said in The King and I.

    While obviously disturbing for all parties involved, the basic dynamic really isn’t that hard to understand.

    It’s the next action that makes the whole process grisly and nasty – for this is where the “double game” banks / insurance providers / countries were actively playing got truly vicious.

    As Greece’s personal finances has worsened, undermining the dinar, the role of Goldman Sachs and other major banks in masking the true extent of the country’s issues [through the use of other complex derivatives] has attracted criticism from European leaders.

    And, once we noted in discussing this aspect of the situation on February 16, making big bucks for themselves in the process of helping Greece and Italy avoid the allegedly strict “deficit” limits which were pre-conditions for joining the Eurozone.

    But before that issue became obvious, a little-known company backed by Goldman, JP Morgan Chase contributing to a dozen other banks had created an index that enabled market players to bet on whether Greece and other European nations would go bust.

    So let’utes be clear: at the same time Goldman et aussi al were using complex derivatives to help Greece, Italy and perhaps others AVOID the government deficit limits that were supposed in order to insure credit-worthiness for entrance into the Eurozone,

    they were simultaneously creating an index that would enable them to bet on which of their own clients might, in fact, go into default

    as a result of the really help they were giving them, using other complex derivatives,

    in avoiding the deficit limits that were supposed to preclude this sort of default.

    Whatever you are able to say about their ethics – that isn’t much – you’ve got to admire the smarts on these guys.

    They weren’t stealing through Peter to pay Paul – they were stealing from Peter As well as Paul to pay themselves.

    But let’s let the New York Times tell the story they, after all, not just documented, but actually, for a change, made available on their website at a time people when people may really see it.

    A little-known company supported by Goldman, JP Morgan Chase and about twelve other banks had created an index that enabled market players to bet upon whether Greece and other Western nations would go bust line.

    Last September, the company, the Markit Group of London, introduced the iTraxx SovX Western Europe index, which is based on such swaps …

    The Markit index is made up of the 15 most heavily traded credit-default swaps in Europe and addresses other troubled economies like Portugal and Spain.

    And as worries about those countries’ debts moved markets around the world in February, trading in the index exploded.

    In February, demand for such index contracts strike $109.3 billion, up from $52.9 billion in January.

    Markit collects a flat fee by licensing agents to trade the index.

    Trading in Markit’s sovereign credit derivative catalog … helped to drive up the cost of insuring Greek debt, as well as, in turn, what Athens must pay to gain access to money.

    The cost of insuring $10 million of Ancient greek bonds, for instance, rose to more compared to $400,000 in February, up from $282,Thousand in early January.

    On several days at the end of January and early Feb, as demand for swaps protection soared, investors in Greek ties fled the market, raising uncertainties about whether Greece may find buyers for coming bond offerings

    And who are the participants in this little “double game” ??? Surprise, surprise:

    European banks including the Swiss giants Credit Suisse and UBS, France’s Société Générale as well as BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank of Germany have been among the heaviest purchasers of swaps insurance, according to investors and bankers who asked for anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.

    That is because those countries are the most exposed. French banks hold $75.4 billion worth of Greek debt, followed by Swiss institutions, at $64 billion, according to the Bank for International Settlements. German banks’ exposure appears at $43.2 billion.

    Trading in credit-default trades linked only to Greek debt has also surged, but is still smaller than the country’s real debt load of $300 billion.

    The overall amount of insurance on Greek debt hit $85 billion in February, up from $38 billion a year ago, according to the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, which tracks trades trading.

    Whether this cozy little arrangement will continue remains not clear, since – either through ignorance, which would be unpardonable, or collusion, which would end up being even worse – US government officials tend to be FINALLY starting to “make inquiries” into this sordid and almost incredible situation.

    It remains unclear precisely how serious this “inquiry” is going to be, however the sudden motivation could hardly become more clear. Certainly European officials have indicated for several weeks awareness of the whole history of Goldman’utes involvement with several of the Membership Med / PIGS countries.

    But this wasn’t until the day after the Times story appeared that recently re-appointed Fed chairman Ben Bernanke introduced the Fed would be looking into Goldman’s role in BOTH finishes of the double game they’re been playing in the Greek fiasco.

    Which, of course, underlines our on-going point about the crucial role of the media in today’s economedia © world. It’s not as if Goldman’s activities haven’t been comprehensive in scores of media resources – even in the New York Times, albeit at moments once they could easily be “hidden in plain sight”.

    But as soon as a Times tale about the sleazy role of derivatives appeared during the middle of the function week – as opposed to the beginning of a long vacation weekend, which is where they’d been placed before –

    the response was immediate, if albeit barely confidence-inspiring, given the Greenspan / Bernanke Fed’s apparent willingness over the last several decades to close its eyes nearly completely until absolutely instructed to look at anything “unusual” – a trait shared with the equally somnolent Securities & Exchange Commission.

    If I had been Goldman, I wouldn’t be too concerned about American officialdom – they are so deeply implicated in the whole sordid mess they risk a complete collapse of whatever shred of legitimacy they may still retain.

    The Europeans, though, may well be a different story, especially since they will be looking to pin blame for this disaster on anyone BUT themselves and their own derelict establishments and practices, and Goldman makes the perfect villain, for all kinds of – mostly legitimate – reasons.

    As with regard to Greece, the outlook continues to be grim, heading towards dire:

    In a sign of the challenges their country faces, Greek officials called off a planned trip to the United States and Asia aimed at interesting new investors in its bonds due to a lack of demand

    Greece faces a critical test next week, when it will try to raise about 3 billion pounds ($4 billion), through an issue of 10-year bonds.

    But with threats of the downgrade to its sovereign debt pending, investors say Greece would need to spend a whopping 7 percent rate of interest just to get people to buy.

    That is nearly a percentage point more than the rate investors received in the previous Ancient greek bond sale, in The month of january, and a full 3 percentage points more than Greece’s borrowing cost before the current crisis. …

    The rise in investor skepticism has brought Greece to adopt a new funding strategy.

    Instead of selling debt through community auctions, where the danger of a failed offering could further unnerve markets, it has gone straight to institutional investors, sounding them out in one-on-one meetings, mostly in London.

    Bankers and analysts in Athens say there is a discussion within the Finance Ministry as to whether the government should go to the market now, or wait until a new menu of changes — like more taxes and further public field wage cuts — is introduced, in the hope that such steps will result in lower financing expenses.

    But a more dire view is already taking hold, according to some bankers, as investors fret which Greece may simply not be able to cover 20 billion euros associated with debt coming due within April and May, and 53 billion euros for all of the year.

    It seems unlikely that such a quantity can be raised from investors — many of them conservative pension plan funds and insurance companies that are already nursing losses from the 8-billion-euro Greek bond issue within January that was hit through the recent market downturn.

    Guess they weren’t able to get into that personal little Markit to make sure they got the right credit-default swaps.

    Maybe next time, they’ll contact Goldman before they start giving away their money. Without doubt, they’ll receive a friendly wedding reception – they should just be sure to keep their hands on their wallets all the time, literally and figuratively.

    David Caploe PhD

    Chief Political Economist

    EconomyWatch.com

     

  • Goldman Made Greece Eurozone Crisis Worse – For Big Profit

    Parthenon – Goldman Sachs Latest Purchase?

    By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.org, 16 February 2010

    By David Caploe Expert degree, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com, Sixteen February 2010

    Chinese New Year / President’utes Day / Carneval – no matter in which you were in the world this weekend, it had been likely a celebration of some kind, where people focused on family / fun / festivities.

    Which means, as followers of economedia © and Economy Watch well understand, it was the perfect time to bury any kind of bad or questionable news.

    And when the subject is Goldman Sachs, that’utes usually when the New York Times falls another powerhouse article – playing the actual “double game” of credibility Or “but we didn’t really hurt you” in which mainstream media organizations attempting to make any claim to legitimacy so often engage.

    So it’s hardly astonishing that – at a time when even a lot of “slow growth” Europe is getting ready to celebrate, despite the on-going financial stagnation – this Friday night in the US / Saturday morning in European countries was when the Times chose to release an explosive piece on how good old Goldman Sachs has been seriously involved in covering up what it right now turns out has been the Ancient greek government’s chronic mis-management of its condition budget and finances.

    What – you imply GS has not only a) been betting against the mortgage-based securities it was selling its own clients; b) deeply implicated in the almost- and still-pending fall of AIG, the largest insurance company on the planet; but also c) helping to aggravate the already bad crisis in the Eurozone ???

    Apparently so.

    But if the Occasions has anything to say about it – and apparently they do, since the story was reported by not just the indefatigable Louise Story, co-author of the OTHER “hidden within plain sight” Goldman scandal stories cited over, as well as two other journalists – you’ll probably never know about it.

    But that’s what Economy Watch is all about – to make sure you DO find out about these things, both here as well as on our increasingly-popular FaceBook Fan page:

    Wall Street tactics akin to the ones that fostered subprime mortgages in America have worsened the financial crisis shaking A holiday in greece and undermining the euro by enabling European governments to hide their mounting debts.

    As worries more than Greece rattle world markets, records and interviews show that with Wall Street’s help, the country engaged in a decade-long effort in order to skirt European debt limits.

    One offer created by Goldman Sachs helped obscure billions in debt from the budget overseers in Brussels.

    As usual, the guys from GS waste no time and will work in ingenious ways – and eerily parallel to the tricks they and their buddies on Walls Street used to help obtain the US in the great shape it’utes in today.

    In early November — three months before Athens became the epicenter of worldwide financial anxiety — a team from Goldman Sachs found its way to the ancient city with a really modern proposition for a government struggling to pay its expenses …

    The bankers, led by Goldman’s president, Gary D. Cohn, kept out a financing instrument that would have pushed financial debt from Greece’s health care program far into the future, much as when strapped homeowners take out second mortgages to pay off their credit cards.

    And apparently, the same kind of sordid maneuvers that worked so well in the US also go over just as easily in Europe.

    It had worked prior to.

    In 2001, just after Greece had been admitted to Europe’s monetary union, Goldman helped the government quietly borrow billions, people familiar with the transaction said.

    That deal, hidden from public view because it was treated like a currency trade rather than a mortgage, helped Athens to meet Europe’s deficit guidelines, while continuing to spend past its means.

    Hmmmm … does that problem ???

    Using accounting sleight-of-hand to help people spend beyond their means – at least for a while, until the whole house of cards comes tumbling down – where HAVE we heard this before ???

    Once again, the primary culprits are what Street. Warren of Buffet has called “economic weapons of mass destruction” – DERIVATIVES.

    As in the American subprime turmoil and the implosion of the American Worldwide Group, financial derivatives played a job in the run-up of Greek debt.

    Instruments developed by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and a wide range of other banks enabled politicians to mask additional borrowing in Greece, Italy and possibly elsewhere. …

    Such derivatives, which are not freely documented or disclosed, increase the uncertainty over how deep the troubles go in Greece and which other governments might have utilized similar off-balance sheet accounting.

    The tide of fear is now washing more than other economically troubled countries on the periphery of Europe, making it more expensive for Italy, Spain and Portugal to borrow.

    So how did it work ???

    In a large number of deals across the Continent, banks supplied cash upfront in return for federal government payments in the future, with those liabilities then left off the books.

    Greece, for instance, traded away the rights in order to airport fees and lottery proceeds in years to come.

    Critics state that such deals, because they are not recorded because loans, mislead investors and regulators about the depth of a country’utes liabilities.

    Now here’s where the parallels become even more disturbing – with the Western equivalent of the phrase that has become all too familiar of late in the American context: Too Big To Fail [TBTF].

    The crisis in Greece poses the most significant challenge yet to Europe’s common currency, the euro, and the Continent’s goal of economic unity.

    The country is, in the argot associated with banking, too big to be allowed to fail.

    Greece owes the world $300 billion, and major banking institutions are on the hook for much of that debt. A default might reverberate around the globe.

    So how did this complete relationship between Wall Road sharpies and – relatively – poor nations develop ???

    Wall Street did not create Europe’s debt problem. However bankers enabled Greece and others to gain access to beyond their means, in offers that were perfectly legal.

    Few rules govern how nations can borrow the money they need for expenses like the military and health care.

    The market for sovereign debt — the Wall Street term for loans in order to governments — is as unfettered as it is vast

    Banks eagerly exploited what was, for them, a highly lucrative symbiosis with free-spending governments

    The 2001 deal between Greece and Goldman, for instance, netted GS more than $300 million.

    Which is why Goldman and its fellow Wall Streeters were so anxious to help countries such as Italy and Greece circumvent the – allegedly – strict rules governing membership in the Eurozone.

    But exactly how did this become a problem for those countries in the first place ? ???

    For all the benefits of uniting Europe with one currency, the delivery of the euro came with an original sin.

    Which is precisely the argument utilized by Paul Krugman in his despairing analysis of the Eurozone turmoil in general, and the Greek tragedy in particular.

    So what was that “unique sin” ???

    Countries like Italy and Greece entered the monetary union with bigger deficits than the ones permitted under the agreement that created the currency.

    Rather than raise taxes or reduce spending, however, these governments artificially reduced their deficits with derivatives.

    And that, of course, is where the boys from the Street arrived:

    Despite persistently high deficits, the 1996 derivative helped bring Italy’s budget into line by swapping currency with JPMorgan at a favorable exchange price, effectively putting more money in the government’s hands. In return, Italy committed to future payments that were not really booked as liabilities.

    In Greece, the bookkeeping was even much more creative than with Italy:

    In exactly what amounted to a garage sale on a national scale, Greek officials essentially mortgaged the actual country’s airports and freeways to raise much-needed money.

    Aeolos, a legal entity created in 2001, helped Greece reduce the debt on its balance sheet that year. As part of the deal, Greece got cash upfront in return for pledging future landing fees at the country’s airports.

    A similar deal in 2000 called Ariadne wolfed down the revenue that the federal government collected from its national lottery.

    Greece, however, classified those transactions as sales, not loans, despite doubts by many critics.

    But however beneficial in the short-term, the long-range implications can be disastrous – as the current Greek crisis now sadly illustrates.

    George Alogoskoufis, who became Greece’utes finance minister in a politics party shift after the Goldman offer, criticized the transaction in the Parliament in 2005.

    The deal, Mr. Alogoskoufis argued, would saddle the government with big payments to Goldman until 2019.

    And talking about yet another such swap,

    Edward Stansted, a senior vice president at the Moody’s credit rating agency, stated the deal would ultimately be a money-loser for Greece because of its long-term payment obligations … “This swap is always going to be unprofitable for the Greek federal government.”

    Which kind of sums up why both the US and now, it seems, Europe as well are going to face a mixed financial / economic crisis for the foreseeable future.

    So enjoy Carneval / the actual Presidents’ Day weekend sales / & Gong Xi Fa Cai – because it looks like the hangover is going to be brutal.

    David Caploe PhD

    Chief Political Economist

    EconomyWatch.com

  • American Corporations will Likely be at the Back of Iran's Business Queue in the Beginning

    American Corporations will Likely be at the Back of Iran's Business Queue in the Beginning

    American businesses will get to Iran after meeting certain conditions.

    One can summarize the potential for US business to engage with Iran 1 sentence: Iran exports crude oil but imports fuel. Why? The Iranians lack adequate capacity to refine their own oil for domestic use.

    This weird fact underscores how, hemmed within by sanctions and the restricted worldview of their theocracy, Iranian technology and set up equipment is years, even years, behind the West – not just in the power sector, but across the board in many industries.

    Their economy is already the largest in the Middle East, with the exception of Turkey. Moreover, with a population of 80 million having an average middle-class income of around US$13,000 per capita – a reasonable estimate in spite of widely fluctuating exchange rates – Iran includes a large market, hungry for the latest technology and upgrading of its industries. The investment potential is actually enormous and will remain so for decades.

    However, will American firms immediately benefit? They will most likely not benefit as much as Chinese, Euro, and European companies, who will be the first at the gates associated with Tehran.

    Faced with a hostile Congress as well as historical ties to Israel, President barack obama has to strike an untrusting as well as gradualist stance toward Iran. US rules can only ease over time, while Russia and China (two five negotiating nations) have previously begun to make billion-dollar deals. German born and French company reps are already in Tehran. Moreover, the official opprobrium of the mullahs in charge of Iran still principally direct against the US because “The Great Satan.”

    Eager Iranian youth

    But that epithet should not fool or scare United states corporations into staying away from the actual Iranian market. Although demographic information in Iran are uncertain, recall that 57% to 62% of Iranians, or even 45 to 50 zillion people, were born after the revolution that brought the actual mullahs to power. To the under-30 group, or approximately 60% of the country, the actual rhetoric of the revolution and anti-American sentiment has the same history presence as the weather or air pollution in Tehran – persistent background static with no great long-term importance.

    Under the chdor – the outer outfit forced on Iranian women – blue jeans, lacy and even risqué underwear, as well as designer brands are the trend. (One of the subordinate considerations on the part of the US delegation led by John Kerry might have been the notion that easing of sanctions can lead to a greater zeal for Iranian youth to engage with the Western and absorb Western ideas.)

    From a commercial angle, it is a “win-win” tale for both the Iranians and the US. Iranian youth are open and eager with regard to western ideas and brands. The actual Iranian economy badly needs upgrading, to bring it up to Western standards. The potential is large. Iran offers 10% of world oil reserves, but has only a 4% share of the market currently.

    This has two ramifications. American oil-field services technology can play a big role in augmenting Iran’s oil production. At the same time, letting loose more crude from Iranian oil fields might further reduce global oil prices.

    The mega-billions that Iran’s commercial revamping (covering all industrial sectors) would cost can be easily be financed once Iranian oil exports can resume at their normal (pre-sanction) levels.

    US companies have a great opportunity, but are likely to be at the back of the queue for a while – unless legally represented by their international affiliates and subsidiaries to minimize the actual “American” association. Either way, Iran represents a newly opened market many US companies cannot ignore.

    What the Iran nuclear deal method for American business is republished with permission from The Conversation

    The Conversation

  • Warren Buffett & Goldman Sachs: The Scandal We Might Never Know

    Rich Nixon – Would You Buy a Used Derivative From This Man?

    By Donald Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.org, 11 February 2010

    Advisory: The following is based purely on circumstantial evidence as well as analogical reasoning and NOT any within information.

    By David Caploe PhD, Main Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com, 11 Feb 2010

    Advisory: The following is based purely on circumstantial evidence and analogical reasoning and NOT any inside information.

    During the actual Watergate hearings of the mid-1970s – examining dirty tricks that, in today’s perspective, seem almost laughably collegiate, but were taken very seriously at the time, which only exhibits how degraded American political culture has since become – a dramatic moment was supplied by Republican Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee, as he asked two very simple connected questions: what did President Nixon know – and when did he realize it ???

    Today the biggest political economic scandal on the horizon remains the near-meltdown of the global financial system that almost took place in Black September 2008, during which the venerable Lehman Brothers did in fact go under, nearly bringing with it several of it’s competitive collaborators, and ushering in not only a continuing global recession, but a crisis of credibility in major financial institutions almost everywhere except, of course, Canada, that despite its physical closeness to the US, has somehow remained immune from the contagion still running rampant just below its southern border. [Ed: EconomyWatch.com do of course cover this subject in Canada – The Best Advanced Economy in the World.]

    That the Canada situation – so close, and yet therefore far – is practically NEVER discussed highlights a sad truth about public discussion regarding the causes and ramifications of those still-frightening events: even now we know almost as little about what happening behind the scenes as we did in the time.

    To be sure, there have been a raft of self-justifying accounts of these occasions, most recently by then-Treasury Secretary, as well as former head of Goldman Sachs, Holly Paulson, who discussed his On the Brink: Inside the Race To Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System on February 9 with the most successful proponent of “value investing”, the Oracle of Omaha themself, St. Warren of Buffett, in an interview streamed live on CNBC.com.

    Now We generally like Buffett, basically because he takes a long-term approach to investing, and never hesitates to criticize Wall Road practices he considers questionable, deceptive, or dishonest, even if they are the SOP of the day.

    But as I watched his disappointingly unrevealing chat with Paulson, skipping here and there over various “highlights” of the run-up to, and dark days of, that Black September, I suddenly got a very bad feeling.

    Because despite the great deal we still don’t know about what was going on then, one factor we DO know, all-too-clearly, is that Goldman Sachs, at least so far, has come out of the still-unfolding crisis within visibly better shape than any other Western financial institution.

    And as indicated by two disturbing, yet brilliantly reported, articles through Gretchen Morgenson and Louise Story from the New York Times – both of which, we have argued, were seemingly “concealed in plain sight”, one on Christmas Eve, the other on the Friday night / ‘life was imple’ of Super Bowl weekend break – it also seems Goldman Sachs took a major role in “heightening the contradictions” that led to the outbreak of this worldwide disaster.

    There are several explosive information in the Christmas Eve tale about how Goldman – and, to be sure, additional investment banks and hedge funds – sold their clients derivative packages, allegedly solidly backed by home loans – the infamous mortgage-backed securities, or MBSs – while, at the same time, making OTHER wagers against the very same items they were promoting their clients.

    Now, to be sure, Buffett has railed towards derivatives, famously calling them “weapons of economic mass destruction”.

    But the crucial reason for this context is WHEN do Goldman start playing this dual game of betting against the very same debt packages they were selling their clients as if they had no doubts about their solidity ???

    Worried about a housing bubble, top Goldman executives made the decision in December 2006 to change the firm’s overall stance on the mortgage market, from positive to negative, though it did not disclose that publicly.

    Indeed, the article points out that several key players within Goldman had started taking this stance even before the firm’s general policy on the housing market shifted into bear-ish precincts.

    So a good 18 months at least prior to Black September 2008, Goldman being an institution had moved against what it perceived from that point forward as a bubble in the housing market they were fairly certain was going to collapse – even as they continued to sell derivatives based on that market to their clients.

    What about the Super Bowl weekend story ???

    Well, it was about exactly how Goldman basically pushed AIG to the wall in a quiet but intense dispute over valuations of these very same “derivatized” mortgage-based securities against which Goldman had been institutionally betting, for at least a year, by taking out insurance on them along with AIG.

    The dramatic climax of this conflict, with which the Times’ story begins, took place in a conference call at the end of January 2008a year after Goldman had privately turned bearish on the housing market, as well as nine months before the explosion of Black September – a major function of which, you may recall, had been the hysteria engendered by the possible collapse of the largest insurer within the world, that very same AIG.

    The obvious inference, obviously, is that Goldman’s desire to make good on its bets From the housing market led it to place pressure on AIG they understood the insurance company could not withstand.

    Not surprisingly, Goldman potentates vehemently took umbrage at the very concept:

    [David] Viniar [Goldman’s Chief Financial Officer] said that Goldman had done nothing wrong and that the actual firm was merely trying to enforce its insurance policy with A.I.G. “I don’capital t think there is any shame whatsoever,” he concluded.

    Lucas truck Praag, a Goldman spokesman, reiterated which position. “We requested the collateral we were entitled to under the terms of our agreements,” he said in a written statement, “and also the idea that A.I.G. collapsed because of our represents is ridiculous.”

    But read on and you might feel these distinguished men were being a bit disingenuous, to say the least:

    Perhaps probably the most intriguing aspect of the relationship in between Goldman and A.I.G. had been that without the insurer to supply credit insurance, the investment bank could not have generated some of its enormous profits betting against the mortgage market.

    And whenever that market went south, The.I.G. became it’s biggest casualty — and Goldman became one of the biggest beneficiaries.

    So why is the time here so important ???

    Because when Street Warren of Buffet finally did are available in on his white equine to rescue Wall Street from its own voracious greed, and the rest of the world from its callousness as well as stupidity, he had his choice of places where he might put his money as a means of showing faith in the system that seemed to be failing at the seams.

    He obviously hadn’t become involved during the whole Bear Stearns debacle earlier in 2008. And he could have chosen in order to rescue Lehman Brothers, the venerable expense house established in 1855 – however he didn’t. Or he could even have taken his billions and help stabilize the world’s biggest insurance company, AIG – but he didn’t do that either.

    Instead, on the 23rd of September, 2008, Goldman announced a private deal to market Berkshire Hathaway $5 billion of perpetual favored stock – basically a loan having a guaranteed 10% annual dividend of $500 million dollars – Along with a “bonus” of the right to buy $5 billion of GS common at $115 / share at any time during the next five years.

    Now, given Buffett’utes penchant for long-term investments, one could bet he wasn’t too concerned when, at one point in the first year of the “bonus” period, GS was, like so many American houses were and would turn out to be, “underwater”, at around $47 / share.

    Only these 43,478,260 warrants weren’t places Buffett was planning to live in, but, rather cash in at some point later within the 5-year period. So when the price a year later was at $186, Buffett – had he sold the entire lot – would have made a good profit of some $3 billion.

    In this context, we are duty-bound to raise the question of due diligence.

    Certainly Buffett is not a guy to throw his money away. And, almost equally certainly, the Oracle of Omaha had enough connections in and around Wall Street to know both

    a)   

    that GS had turned bear-ish on the housing market by the end of 2006 AND

    b)  

    that they’d taken out downside positions backing that up with AIG – positions which, if he had known about them, he or she certainly knew would place AIG in the toilet to the advantage of GS if the housing market collapsed, as he almost certainly knew it would.

    The concerns therefore that Howard Baker requested of President Nixon re Watergate suddenly resound loudly in the wake associated with Black September 2008:

    What do Warren Buffett know about the negative position of Goldman Sachs towards the housing market – and when – such that he had great confidence giving a $5 billion loan to GS at a time when the whole financial world seemed heading towards Doomsday ???

    Maybe someday we’ll know if there’s yet another Goldman Sachs scandal to be uncovered – this time around involving the last man anybody would ever suspect: Warren Buffett.

    Or perhaps we won’t.

     

    David Caploe PhD

     

     

     

     

    EconomyWatch.com

     

     

     

  • Papua New Guinea is Rapidly Developing Despite Numerous Obstacles

    Papua New Guinea is Rapidly Developing Despite Numerous Obstacles

    Business-unfriendly Papua New Guinea is somehow booming.

    Papua New Guinea’s recent period of exponential growth places this among the world’s most rapidly developing economies.

    Between 2005 and 2014, PNG’s economy expanded in a real annual rate of 6.6 percent and earnings per capita reached US$2,081. Development benefitted from macroeconomic stability as well as low volatility in output.  Since 2009, a large amount of investment in the natural resources sector driven that growth.  Support also came from the huge increase in interest in commodities worldwide, particularly in Asian countries.

    Yet despite sustained high levels of growth, poverty rates in PNG have not fallen substantially because the benefit of higher income benefits only a relatively small percentage of the population.

    For the benefits of the recent development to become more widely distributed, PNG needs further reforms to promote the introduction of its private sector.

    The country is one of the world’s most difficult locations to do business. A 2012 study of companies in PNG identified law and order like a major constraint, particularly since business confidence in law enforcement and the judiciary is low. Laptop computer also showed that government–business relationships were weak. PNG also rated poorly in Transparency International’s ratings of perceptions associated with corruption.

    Access to finance continues to be an issue in spite of PNG having a broader selection of financial institutions than other Pacific countries, with the possible exception of Fiji. A new law, created with the assistance of the Off-shore Private Sector Development Effort, allowing for business and personal assets apart from real estate pledged as collateral for loans, should enhance the availability of funding for businesses.

    The 2012 survey also discovered investment and entrepreneurship were hampered by poor facilities, limited functioning of key government bodies such as the competition expert and the company registry, as well as misdirected government regulation. Nonetheless, the survey results did show an improvement on a 2007 study, particularly with respect to macroeconomic performance as well as political stability.

    A danger for those resource-rich developing countries is a trend known as the ‘resource curse’, where nations with abundant natural resources experience worse development outcomes than countries with less resources. For PNG’s economy to achieve the benefits of sustained growth, further, and extensive, policy reforms to promote private field development are required.

    Recent government policy statements acknowledge the need for reform, highlighting the importance of enabling the non-public sector to promote growth. However, past policy moves have not always reflected this goal. The state dominates the economic climate well beyond its traditional, broadly accepted role as a supplier of public goods. The toughening of local content guidelines and labour restrictions could damage private investment.

    Attempts to improve governance have been ephemeral, losing momentum when they run up against established problems. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominate essential sectors of the economy, delivering weak services, particularly in electricity generation. Indeed, a recent cabinet decision anticipates expanding the function of SOEs into other sectors of the economy, contrary to the mentioned policy of promoting the role from the private sector in offering goods and services to the economy.

    On surface of these factors, credit is difficult to obtain for all but the largest businesses. The banking sector is actually liquid yet bank success is substantially above the globe average, largely because of the high cost of banking services. A further further complicating factor is the imposition of an exchange rate that appears to be higher than the actual equilibrium rate, resulting in the development of significant arrears in the percentage of foreign exchange.

    It is important that PNG does not allow the long-term growth potential of the economy to be wasted. Chile is an example of what is attainable by resource-rich countries. In 1985, the per capita gdp of Chile was just twice those of PNG. Yet by 2013, this had grown to 9 times that of PNG because of Chile’s dedication to reducing the part of the state, opening the actual economy to foreign investment, and using market forces to allocate resources wherever possible. These types of policies are available to PNG with appropriate reforms.

    An assessment of PNG’s private sector by the Pacific Private Sector Development Effort has identified the following change priorities:

    * reducing the role of the state through privatising state-owned enterprises and utilising public private partnerships

    * vigorously implementing the new collateral reform framework to improve access to finance; establishing a sovereign wealth fund to take a position proceeds from the sale of liquefied natural gas to accumulate assets for when resource exports begin to decline

    * enhancing the legal and institutional framework with regard to competition to ensure that the economy is competitive

    Implementing reforms such as these will play a major part in making certain continued growth in the future as well as in seeing the benefits of that development better distributed throughout PNG’utes economy.

    Reforms can secure Papua Brand new Guinea’s growth is republished along with permission from East Asian countries Forum

  • Examining the Sustainability Efforts of Australia's Biggest Banks

    Examining the Sustainability Efforts of Australia's Biggest Banks

    Australia's biggest banks have a sketchy sustainability record.

    Australian companies will soon be publishing financial results, as well as details about sustainability efforts.

    Corporate social responsibility of the big four banks – Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), National Australia Bank (NAB) and Westpac is a continuing topic of debate following recent scandals as well as reports of unsustainable activities.

    Yet according to ANZ chairman, David Gonski, Aussies ought to “stop bashing the actual banks” for being large and profitable.

    This comment should put civil society on guard.

    A current study by the Centre for Corporate Governance at the University of Technology Sydney, area of the UNEP Inquiry into the Design of the Sustainable Financial System, examined self-regulatory as well as voluntary sustainability efforts of the world’s largest banks, in partnership with  Catalyst Australia which scrutinised the efforts of the large four Australian banks.

    Sustainable finance

    The “4 pillars” of the Australian banking program are a dominant part of the Aussie economy: the four banks are featured in the top five of the ASX 200 and they hold A$522 million of Australian household build up, equal to one-third of Australia’s gdp.

    In the words of David Murray, former CBA boss and chair of the Financial System Inquiry: “banks account most of the assets in the economy – regardless of whether it’s businesses, governments themselves, homes, or projects, whatever else.”

    This market dominance results in great power and great obligation. As banks provide the most of external finance to businesses and governments, they can influence practices: bank lending possibly has more impact on environmentally friendly enterprise than investment and divestment on the stock market.

    Banks can thus wield their enormous market power to support sustainable actions, while their actions may likewise contribute to detrimental conduct.

    Conflicting images

    The examination of the sustainability initiatives of Australian and worldwide banks reveals a schism between symbolic and substantive durability efforts.

    At the 2014 World Economic Forum, Westpac was named probably the most sustainable company in the world. The actual Dow Jones Sustainability Index, a major reference point for environmentally friendly investors, has named ANZ as a leader in the global financial sector six times within the last seven years, while NAB and also the CBA have likewise been accepted for their sustainability performance.

    Yet despite being lauded for their durability efforts, the public image of large Australian banks have endured in the wake of bogus financial advice scandals, disputed fees, and allegations associated with rate-fixing and insider trading.

    Banks possess drawn the ire of ecological activists by extensively funding the actual fossil fuel industry, fossil fuel mining along the Great Hurdle Reef, and nuclear hands manufacturing. Oxfam Australia claims the large Four are also backing agricultural and timber companies accused of land grabbing in creating countries.

    As a result, public self-confidence in banks is reduced: according to a national survey, part of the research by Catalyst Australia, 76% of respondents think that banks put profits prior to their social and ecological responsibilities.

    Regulation and Supervision

    In 2005, the federal government launched an Inquiry into Corporate Responsibility and Multiple Bottom Line reporting. It examined the extent to which the Australian legal framework promotes or discourages company directors from considering interests of stakeholders apart from shareholders, the suitability of voluntary sustainability measures, and the appropriateness of reporting requirements.

    The Committee found that legal changes were undesirable, as it deemed it “not appropriate in order to mandate the consideration of stakeholder interests into directors' duties.”

    Furthermore, the Panel recommended that sustainability confirming should remain voluntary, dreading that “mandatory reporting would lead to a ‘tick-the-box’ culture of conformity.”

    In the aftermath of the global financial trouble, financial sector regulators were pushed to exercise more guidance and be less trusting associated with self-regulatory efforts. Consequently, in The year 2013 the Government launched the Economic climate Inquiry. Regrettably, the relation to reference did not address social and environmental sustainability and risks in the financial field.

    The readiness to increase supervision to avoid financial risks is not matched up by a similar willingness in order to supervise and regulate the actual social and environmental dangers caused by the financial sector. This emphasis on voluntary initiatives is problematic, as the study by Catalyst Australia implies that only 26% of the Australian community believes banks will act ethically and responsibly when they self-regulate.

    Bridging the governance gap

    While many Aussie and overseas banks possess successfully shaped sustainable company imagery, the research by the Center for Corporate Governance as well as Catalyst Australia finds which self-regulation permits facts to be hidden and leaves social and ecological matters peripheral to business strategies.

    The assurance that banking activities are based on sustainable concepts requires public monitoring of compliance and performance – because US litigator Louis D. Brandeis famously stated:

    “Publicity is justly commended like a remedy for social and commercial diseases. Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants; electric light the best policeman.”

    In order to accomplish this, directors' duties ought to be reformulated to include social as well as environmental responsibilities, sustainability confirming requirements should be redefined and further embedded in corporate governance methods, and social and ecological risk assessments should apply the precautionary principle, shifting the burden of proof to stars that potentially cause harm.

    Robust government, regulation, and supervision should not be seen as measures that restrain innovation or entrepreneurship, but instead as instruments that can help to restore trust, and ensure that financial activities are conducted openly, fairly and sustainably.

    Australia’s banking four pillars wobbly on sustainability record is actually republished with permission from The Conversation

    The Conversation

  • As Iranian Sanctions Lift, Global Economic Benefits will have Attached Risks

    As Iranian Sanctions Lift, Global Economic Benefits will have Attached Risks

    Iran has an opportunity to be a major league economy.

    The Islamic Republic of Iran boasts the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves, second-largest gas supplies, and the 29th-biggest economy, estimated from US$415.3 billion in 2014. Its gross domestic product is growing about 3% annually despite the crippling impact associated with decades-old sanctions.

    Not surprisingly, then, possible economic gains are prevailing over military, terrorism and human rights concerns in framing responses to the historic deal agreed to this week between Iran and 6 major world powers (P5+1).

    While Iran paths Saudi Arabia as the biggest economy in the region thanks to the latter’s power dominance, it has many advantages over its rival that are certain to become more pronounced as supports are lifted. Iran’s economy is more diversified and it includes a robust manufacturing sector which supplies domestic and Asian markets with chemicals, plastic materials, automobiles, and household consumer electronics.

    Iran is also set to get a boost from about $100 billion within assets currently frozen by US and UN sanctions once the International Atomic Power Agency (IAEA) certifies that Tehran is actually fulfilling its part of the offer, probably by the end of the year.

    As supports fall away, Iran should rise swiftly back into the major teams, propelled by larger power exports that could top $100 billion annually, the release of hitherto freezing funds and a highly educated and motivated workforce.

    Iran, for its part, has been stressing the economical and stability benefits of the arrangement. President Hassan Rouhani emphasized to their nation: “We are on the brink of a brand new era in the international community.”

    Ever the cautious international bureaucrat, IAEA overseer general Yukiya Amano simply endorsed the Vienna accord as a “significant step forward.” Then, the IAEA has no financial stake in the plan’s failure or success.

    Most nations, however, do, and they are counting on Iran becoming a major market for their goods and services, signaling why money is trumping other concerns when it comes to responses to the accord. In addition, for people who remain opposed, their rivalry with Iran meant they did not expect to gain anything in the first place.

    Here is really a look at how 20 nations with a variety of ties to Iran reacted to news from the accord, and how economic pursuits were the dominant element.

    Russia and China await large benefits

    Russia is one superpower whose stance is as clear as that of many developing countries. President Vladimir Putin has declared that relations with Iran “will get a new impetus and will no longer be influenced by external factors.”

    Foremost in fiscal terms will be high-tech weaponry sales and atomic reactors for civilian energy generation. Spain expects to benefit despite knowing a flood of Iranian gas and oil on the market will lower power prices, hurting its own main source of income.

    China is another superpower that warmly welcomed the deal as a “historical day.” China, like Spain, plans to sell civilian atomic plants to Iran and is within talks to invest in gas, oil and rare earth mineral mines in Iran. Beijing, which imports a lot more than 500,000 barrels of Iranian crude a day despite the supports, also hopes to have fewer problems fueling its economy.

    US, Canada, Australia, and UK reactions more mixed

    In the US as well as Canada – which have little requirement for Iranian oil or other exports but whose companies hope to strike profitable deals selling technology, power infrastructure and consumer items – the political reaction offers understandably been more mixed.

    Reflecting the divisions within the US about Iran’s potential martial risk, Republican presidential hopefuls such as Jeb Bush denounced the arrangement as “dangerous, deeply flawed, and shortsighted.”

    Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, however, is actually less fearful of this threat and more focused on pitching financial welfare to American voters. The lady described it as “an important step” — one which she helped set the actual groundwork for as secretary of state.

    Canada, which severed diplomatic relations in 2012 over Iran’s atomic and human rights infractions, said it needed to examine the deal further before taking any specific motion, even as pressure mounts to embrace the fiscal advantages of reestablishing ties.

    Australia greeted the deal by stressing “caution at least as much as the welcome,” but its exports, mostly grains, to Iran are small at $222 million.

    The UK, which also participated in the negotiations, has increased its trade over the past 12 months by 36% to $109 million. Birmingham hopes to gradually restore relaxed to a relationship that broke off in 2011.

    Israel, the GCC, and the Sunni–Shiite struggle

    Israel lives under the verbal threat associated with annihilation by Tehran and naturally doesn’t expect to have any commercial transactions directly or indirectly using the Ayatollah’s regime.

    Freed from economic considerations, Prime Minister Netanyahu called the deal “a bad mistake of historical proportions.”

    Certainly, seen from Jerusalem, the anti-Semitic leaders of the Islamic Republic could set up vast portions of their newly found funds to strike terror via Hezbollah and Hamas. Consequently, antipathy as well as fear of Iran had brought Israel nearer to erstwhile Arab foes in opposition Iran.

    Saudi Arabia, for example, which is kept in a sectarian struggle against Iran for dominance in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and also the Gulf, had its diplomats speak confidentially about “extremely dangerous” Local expansionism in the wake of the nuclear deal.

    Fellow Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar part of this Sunni–Shiite battle, were much more nuanced in their response.

    All three Gulf monarchies know that the deal provides both economic advantages and costs. Iranian cash soon to be heading their way will boost real estate, luxury goods, and consulting services. At the same time, higher Iranian oil and gas exports will eat into their established energy-based income streams. Iran’s oil minister is already likely to boost exports by 500,Thousand barrels per day within 6 months and top out at 2.5 million casks per day within a couple of years. This will be a particularly major blow towards the Saudis, whose crude oil will become much less vital to the global energy marketplace.

    Two other GCC member states, the actual United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman, are taking a more positive approach, regarding Iran’s economic and strategic reemergence as inevitable. The UAE, which has been rebuilding non-energy trade with Iran that’s now really worth $17 billion, extended “congratulations” coupled with hope that the agreement will contribute to “strengthening regional security as well as stability.”

    Oman, which helped sow the seeds of this agreement by opening up communication channels between Iran and the US, proceeded to go even further, hailing the agreement like a “historic win–win.”

    Oman has historical commercial ties with Iran and a confessionally mixed population of Ibadi, Sunni, and Shiite Muslims. Therefore, it cannot afford to foment intrafaith tensions that would rip apart it’s society and doom its emerging status as a diplomatic as well as mercantile hub.

    Iran’s allies praise deal

    Iraq’s Shiite government is allied with Iran confessionally and dependent upon it both commercially and in the battle against the Islamic State. Accordingly, Iraq sees the deal as a “driver for regional stability.”

    Indeed, long afterwards the US is gone from its dirt, Iraq’s Shiite majority knows that sustaining not just political but financial clout over its restive Sunni populace north of Baghdad will depend on Tehran’utes largess via militias and cross-border trade.

    Then there is dysfunctional Syria, where the tottering regime is really a client beholden fiscally, commercially and militarily to Tehran.

    Having just accepted the $1 billion line of credit from Iran, Bashar al-Assad could not do anything but praise the actual agreement as “a great victory" and “a fundamental turning point.” Presumably, Assad expectations that if he can just hold on to Damascus a little longer, Iran will be more energized in convincing the US and EU that the Alawite ruling class can still secure Syria against the Islamic State.

    Neighbors see gains from trade, oil flows

    Istanbul, despite being a regional rival of Tehran on the politics stage, declared “the nuclear deal is great news for that Turkish economy,” would lead to expense and help reduce the price of oil.

    Indeed, Turkey’s economy, presently Iran’utes third-largest trading partner, will benefit each from larger flows of cheap Iranian gas and oil to its own consumers and from tariffs on energy that passes through it’s borders to European countries.

    Likewise, the entire Turkish supply chain – from corporations to the people – stands to reap windfalls from goods flowing through it’s borders to Europe as well as beyond.

    Pakistan and India, similarly, hardly feel threatened by Iran even despite Tehran’s influence on Afghanistan, due to their own nuclear capabilities. Thus, each welcomed the deal and it is economic impacts.

    Pakistan expects “financial growth along with an increase in trade" especially through the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Iranian gasoline, smuggled over the border of Baluchistan and Makran provinces, has long kept the actual Pakistani economy afloat. However, those supply lines provide no tax revenues. Now, as energy imports can take place freely as well as overtly, the central federal government in Islamabad stands to benefit.

    India also expressed delight at additional “energy cooperation and connectivity” along with a reaffirmation of each country’s “right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy.” India has an ever-rising demand for fuel, and Iran is positioned a short distance away to generate a steady supply.

    Kazakhstan’s authorities hailed the accord as they expect swift gains from the recently inaugurated trans-national railway. The Central Asian nation also intends to work with Iran toward enhanced co-operation in the energy-rich Caspian Sea.

    Jockeying for position

    China is currently Iran’s largest trading companion, with non-fuel trade expected to increase from $13 billion in 2014 in order to at least $80 billion by the end of this year. Rounding out the top five are the UAE, Poultry, the European Union and South Korea. Seoul also quickly joined Iran’s other top trading partners in inviting the nuclear deal.

    As no more sanctions bolsters Iran’s economy, these 20, and many other countries will be competing over the coming months and years to enjoy the benefits that will accompany the nuclear accord taking effect.

    Clearly, it is no surprise that money is dominating reactions, rather than ideals or even fear. For better or worse, global as well as regional responses are being shaped by fiscal calculations. Even security and strategic pursuits are being seen in commercial instead of military terms.

    It’s the economy, stupid.

    Money trumps fear in reactions to West’utes nuclear accord with Iran is republished with permission from The Conversation

    The Conversation

  • Economic Partnership Agreements and Japanese Banks Warrant Further Study

    Economic Partnership Agreements and Japanese Banks Warrant Further Study

    Japanese banks have little to say about economic partnership agreements.

    When viewed through the lens associated with trade deals negotiated using the Association of Southeast Oriental Nations (ASEAN), Australia, and the Trans-Pacific Relationship (TPP), Japan has shown recent willingness to engage in global free industry. However, is there any indication these deals are striking the chord where it issues most, with Japan’s services sector, which comprises 70% of their economic activity?

    Japan has been a long-term supporter associated with multilateral trade mechanisms (Patton 2011). The key reason for this support is it’s caution against discriminatory trade arrangements that would impact its export-oriented industrial sectors (Yoshimatsu 2012). As such, Japan’s long-held view has been that its needs were served through multilateral World Trade Organization (WTO) processes. Only since the 2000s has it turned its attention to bilateral and local agreements (Sasaki 2012).

    Japan’s late entry into the economic relationship agreement (EPA) game contributed to its early trade contracts being limited in protection and timid in aspirations. Japan’s approach with nations like Singapore, Mexico, and Malaysia appear based on five main qualities: bilateral rather than regional, developing nations as partners, modest industry and investment coverage, safety of sensitive sectors, and also the inclusion of economic cooperation components (Pekkanen, Solís, and Katada 2007).

    Joining the actual TPP negotiations in 2010 signaled a policy direction change for Japan, because in the TPP Japan was not the bigger, wealthier partner able to effectively control agreement negotiations (Ellie 2013). The conclusion of the 7-year trade negotiations with Australia in 2014 also indicated further Japoneses willingness to be comprehensive in its trade commitments.

    In particular, the starkest of changes between Japan’utes early trade deals and it is latest ones are in the help area. In its early offers, Japan doused criticism of modest trade access by promoting, as well as providing finance for, various technical transfers to its creating nation partners (Tamura 2007). More recently, however, the liberalization of expense and trade in services in addition to improved rules for electronic commerce and government procurement are specifically included in Japan’s worldwide trade arrangements. Services final results have come into focus.

    The reason for this focus might be the family member strength of Japan’s main services sector, the financial industry. The 2008 global financial crisis, which resulted in the largest company failures in history, barely damaged the Japanese financial services sector. Japan had already suffered its “lost decade” of stagnation and company failures following the asset percolate in the 1990s, and rigid conditions imposed in two waves of subsequent banking reform in 1996 and 2002 meant that Japan’s major banking institutions to that point had been known as “dull” (The Economist 2011, p. 2).

    Yet, it was the Japanese banks’ lack of interest in mezzanine and other derivative products that gave them an advantage during the global financial trouble. In late 2008 and for the first time since the Japanese asset price bubble burst in 1991, Japoneses companies took major buy-ins in European and American banks and financial services companies (Montgomery and Takahashi 2011). In addition, the Japanese banks’ share of global syndicated loans moved up from 6% in 2007 to 14% in 2012 (Dvorak as well as Fukase 2013).

    Therefore, the question to ask gets, was the re-emergence of the Japoneses banks as a globally significant force connected to the timing from the government’s changes in its approach to EPAs? Are the now stronger Japoneses banks lobbying for more services access in EPA negotiations? The reply is, well, maybe.

    Unlike the farming sector, Japan’s banking field rarely comments on EPAs. Indeed, one point that differentiated Japan’utes early approach to free industry negotiations from other advanced nations was that Japan did not appear interested in pushing for mandatory obligations on financial services (Katada and Solís 08). Japan’s approach stood out because peculiar given that finance had been among the main benefits sought by Japan’s earliest free trade agreement partners. Furthermore, the direct link between expense outflows from a home country’s banking institutions (in the form of foreign direct expense) and inflows into free industry agreement partner countries indicates that Japanese banks themselves might be expected to have a direct commercial interest in the outcomes of EPA negotiations (Poelhekke 2012).

    Looking more closely in the specifics of the early trade offers, Japan’s first completed Environmental protection agency, with Singapore, was the subject of energetic lobbying by Japan’s leading company group, Keidanren, to include financial providers liberalization in the agreement. However, when Mexico negotiated the second EPA with Japan, there was a full exemption for financial providers, which was rare among EPAs (Fink as well as Molinuevo 2008).

    Still, although the banks tend to be long-term contributors to Keidanren, it is not clear how the Japanese banks themselves have engaged with Environmental protection agency negotiations. What is clear, however, is that the banks should be motivated to support trade outcomes. For example, the concentration of the Japanese export sector results in a small number of very large multinational firms conducting a great deal of trade: these large companies remain directly connected to their house banks (Volz and Fujimura 2009). The big Japanese exporting firms tend to be dependent on both the trade finance and the export- and investment-related information provided by Japanese banks (Inui et ing. 2013). This direct link with the traded economy would appear to be sufficient incentive for that banks to support initiatives that cause more trade and investment.

    Further, the banks remain affected by slow growth in the Japanese domestic marketplace. Even though there is an increasingly aggressive international banking environment, expanding overseas is one of the few paths to growth left for that Japanese banks (EIU 2012).

    In summary, the literature reveals little about how contemporary Japanese banking institutions integrate EPAs into their commercial factors. However, there appears to be a prima facie determination for the banks to do so. Therefore, because of the size of major Japanese banks and the importance of the services sector to Japan’s future growth, how Japanese banks work with EPAs is a field that appears to justify further research.

    Japanese banks’ appetite for economic partnership contracts is republished with permission through Asia Pathways

  • Modi has the Ambition, but the Indian People Need More

    Modi has the Ambition, but the Indian People Need More

    India's Modi needs to channel his ambition for his country.

    There are some uncanny similarities in between Narendra Modi and Barack Obama. Both have risen from humble beginnings, both are charismatic public speakers as well as consummate communicators on social media, both were relative outsiders to the capitals where they now hold the most powerful office, and neither is dependent on their political party for their electoral success. Each has additionally shown an exceptional ability to mobilise savings and human talent to their cause.

    But one hopes that this is where similarities will end. Hopefully, Modi will be more successful in reforming the economic and administrative system he has inherited and will be the less divisive figure, politically and socially. To achieve this he will have to behave resolutely and quickly against bigots as well as fringe elements in the Bharatiya Janata Celebration, which he led to a historical victory in the 2014 elections.

    Modi has the ambition to transform India, and lead Indians out from poverty and past the middle-income trap to prosperity. He or she holds significant credentials with this task based on his track record in Gujarat, the state that he ran for 12 years as chief minister. But Indian is not Gujarat. It is much more than even the sum of many Gujarats, because of the huge diversity, complexity, and heterogeneity that characterises India. Modi therefore, will need to consciously jettison his Gujarat experience making the transition from as being a CEO to a statesman. He will have to become comfortable with nurturing several CEOs like himself, and increase delegation instead of centralising all motion in his office.

    Modi brings complete commitment to office. He has developed a solid reputation as a difficult taskmaster and a person who does not flinch from his chosen path, even when he risks unpopularity and ostracism within his own party. He has a laser-like focus on improving governance and also the delivery of public services. That will bring succour to each investors and the marginalised. He has guaranteed to root out problem at the top. However, he must additionally address ground-level corruption and official harassment, which is the bane of the middle class—his principal assistance base.

    Modi has made it amply obvious that the focus of his foreign policy will be India’s neighbours in South Asia. By visiting 16 countries in the first year and decisively upgrading Indo–All of us relations, while also improving upon the status quo with Japan and China, he’s clearly shown a desire in order to secure India’s position around the high table of global governance.

    Modi knows that the success of India’s international policy will ultimately be determined by regardless of whether he can put his domestic house in order. We should anticipate him to focus far more on this critical task in the coming period. He also has to spend sufficient attention to strengthening India’s democratic institutions. Modi has an historic chance to take India to brand new heights both domestically as well as globally, and he seems to have the actual talent, skill, passion, as well as ambition to seize this opportunity.

    Will Modi guide India to new levels? is republished with permission from East Asia Forum

  • How to Get the Most Out of a €50 Billion Asset Sale

    How to Get the Most Out of a €50 Billion Asset Sale

    Greece needs to sell euro 50 Billion of assets; what could go wrong?

    Yesterday’s agreement between the Greek government and its creditors includes a condition that requires Greece to sell €50 billion worth of community assets and establish a fund to oversee the proceeds.

    Recapitalizing banks will take half, while paying back part of Greece’s debt will take €12.5 billion as well as investing internally to generate development will consume €12.5 billion.

    While the privatization of inefficiently managed government assets could well serve the interests of the Greek people, it could well go very wrong.

    Here’s how and what Greece could do to prevent that from happening.

    Setting the right incentives

    The fund is already off to a bad start by setting a target sales number (the €50 billion). Doing so in the outset can distort bonuses.

    By that I mean the easiest way to hit that target is to sell property at whatever price you can get, thus well below their true worth, resulting in a lot of bad deals. Greece could effortlessly end up selling €60 billion to €80 billion associated with quality assets just to hit the €50 billion target.

    I wrote a Harvard situation a while ago of a hotel organization that had a target of promoting €300 million of resorts per year. But they never specific how many hotels they would market. Not surprisingly, they ended up selling way too many hotels for way too low a price. They reached their sales target, but at the cost of selling far more of the assets than they needed to.

    My point is the following: Greece should carefully design a overall performance measurement system that makes sure that assets are sold at the maximum cost that could be obtained in the marketplace. That ought to help get around the pitfalls of setting a target in advance.

    Timing of sales and use associated with proceeds

    The Greek economy is in wrecks and the government has a liquidity problem – that is, it is short on ready cash. These are exactly the wrong conditions in which to sell assets. Fire sales result in deep discounts.

    Moreover, they lead to the sale of the easiest-to-sell assets. The easiest assets to sell are the ones that have the potential buyers. The reason that there are many buyers is that their own economics are attractive; these are high-quality assets.

    It is very important that the arises from disposing of these high-quality assets end up being invested in the economy rather being used to repay loans that were made to recapitalize banks or prior loans. These loans have below-market rates of interest and very long maturities (perhaps even Six decades), so their repayment can wait. Indeed the present value of Greece’s debt is just a small percentage of its nominal value.

    Investing the actual proceeds in the economy could create the conditions for economic development, raising the prices of the remaining government assets that are still in the portfolio.

    Lesson: no need to rush the asset sales, and merely make sure to use proceeds with regard to something productive. That means there should be an effort to renegotiate to ensure that more of the fund goes towards investment.

    Governance and transparency

    The privatization fund ought to follow world-class standards in terms of government and transparency in the putting in a bid process.

    The members of the fund’s board of directors should be carefully chosen to protect the actual interests of the Greek individuals. Directors should be chosen based on merit and be experts within matters of accounting, finance and valuation so they can successfully oversee the sales associated with assets.

    Greece can follow best-practice government processes such as those used by the Norwegian pension fund which manages the wealth of the actual Norwegian people from the extraction of oil.

    Choosing the right partners

    Buyers have standing – good or bad – and the directors should consider them, along with bid cost, when choosing to whom they will market an asset.

    Companies, investment funds or even sovereign investment partners who have developed a reputation for responsible business practices and the creation of value for all stakeholders can create more value for the Ancient greek people. Businesses that promote the development of skills, safe working problems, protection of the natural environment, as well as product safety and quality will create competitive advantages for the nation over time.

    The right framework

    The Greek government uses cash accounting, and for that reason does not prepare a balance linen and does not take inventory of its assets and liabilities.

    “You manage what you measure,” and it is obvious when it comes to Greece that not measuring assets and liabilities using internationally accepted sales standards leads to mismanagement of both assets and liabilities.

    We need a fresh start and the right framework under which to start creating value for the Greek people. This framework would be to measure, analyze, create and communicate value.

    Measure the value of the actual assets and liabilities and the net worth therefore the measures can be analyzed. Analyze performance over time and in accordance with other countries in the Eurozone therefore the analysis can be used as an input on which needs to change to create worth. Create value by adopting policies that will increase the value of the assets. Communicate the value creation story to build trust and confidence in the economy and attract opportunities.

    Following some of these guidelines will help ensure that the Greek people get the most out of this fund, and that in turn might bring their economy and livelihoods back to life more quickly.

    Greece bailout includes a €Fifty billion asset fund. Here’utes how to avoid wasting it is republished with permission from The Conversation

    The Conversation

  • Measuring the Pace and Scope of China's Innovations

    Measuring the Pace and Scope of China's Innovations

    China's SOE privatization and anti-corruption campaign seems to be working.

    Five years ago, few would have expected that China would create four of the top ten worldwide internet companies (by number of visitors) — Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, and Sohu — as well as revolutionary multinationals like Huawei and Xiaomi. Nor would most have anticipated China’s increasing provision of global public items, including its One Belt, One Road strategy, which aims to provide the facilities needed to knit Eurasia into a single vast market.

    More news that’s remarkable has just emerged in spite of slowing economic-growth rates, China, along with Hong Kong, has recorded US$29 billion in initial public offerings so far this year — almost twice the actual funds raised in All of us markets.

    By any measure, the interest rate and scope of development in China has begun to improve. How has this occurred, and why is it happening right now?

    The answer lies in the unprecedented challenges that China encounters, including corruption, pollution, unsustainable local debts, ghost towns, shadow banks, inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and excessive government control over the economy. Certainly, nobody would argue that these are good developments for China; nonetheless, they have arguably been a blessing in disguise. They’ve imbued reform efforts with a degree of urgency that has had a far-reaching impact. Indeed, conventional GDP data do not reflect the size of the transformation that they are traveling.

    Of course, China has long been committed to market-driven structural reforms, at the national and municipal levels. It couldn’t have attained its position as the world’s second-largest economy or else. However, the key to China’s success has been constant testing, and the pursuit of that credo have intensified.

    For example, the social networking of telecommunications, roads, rail, air, and maritime transport enabled China to become a global hub for the production of customer durables, and improve their distribution. More recently, China began to apply the exact same approach to building a more innovative, knowledge-based economy — one in which the providers sectors, together with domestic consumption, drive growth.

    As a result, the nation has increasingly been concentrating on the so-called ‘killer apps’ that, based on the historian Niall Ferguson, drove the West’s rise to economic dominance: competition, science, property, modern medicine, consumerism, and an ethic of hard work. Particularly, China has worked to boost marketplace competition and foster technology and innovation, with improvement in these areas underpinned by efforts to improve governance, strengthen mechanisms of accountability, and increase investment in public goods.

    Crucially, even while China’s specific goals possess shifted, its policymakers possess adhered to the experimental approach that has served the country very well thus far. It was the combination associated with broad-based education, openness to technology and innovation, investment in sophisticated telecommunications infrastructure, and ideas in manufacturing smartphones which fuelled China’s rapid development in the e-tail and internet industries. This openness to innovation — along with what some say is lax regulation — also allowed platforms like Alibaba to integrate payments and logistics prior to many Western players did.

    China’s ‘learning by doing’ approach is likely to continue to yield revolutionary solutions to emerging problems. For example, faced with a shrinking labour force, the government has ramped upward investment in robotic automation along with other productivity-enhancing technologies. The impact on China’utes competitiveness of rising real wages —, which have been increasing through more than 15 percent annually because 2008 — will, the country’utes leaders expect, ultimately be offset by the benefits of productivity-led growth, not to mention the much-needed increase in household consumption.

    Of course, China’s approach has brought significant stresses, setbacks and failures. China’s real estate, credit and stock market pockets —, which produced ghost cities, bad local debts as well as stock-price volatility — attest to that. But the policy decisions that offered rise to these problems — decentralising control over land and permitting markets to direct the movement of talents, trade, investment and capital — have also been critical to progress.

    China’s leaders appreciate this well. Rather than avoiding danger, they remain prepared to reverse failing policies. In addition, if necessary, they’re willing to pay for mistakes. Given the savings the country has built up, reflected in bulging foreign-exchange reserves, the central government has got the fiscal room to afford this.

    Today’s anti-corruption campaign should be considered an effort by China’s leaders to correct another negative consequence of past policies. The approach is two-pronged: the government is privatising a few SOEs, so that market competition may check the behaviour of corporate managers, while treating the actual managers of other (typically larger) SOEs as public servants, susceptible to the increasingly severe guidelines of public accountability, such as party discipline. Earlier this month, Leader Xi Jinping announced a new wave associated with measures.

    China’s government is actually running real risks because it pushes through structural changes that are unprecedented in pace, scale and complexity. Fortunately, China has both the encounter and the wherewithal to experiment with the next stage of structural change.

    China’s challenges drive experiment-driven reforms is republished with permission through East Asia Forum